Warrington Huddersfield write up & tips : Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:50 pm
This match will be played on Sunday afternoon at Warrington, with the climate expected to be warm, dry and around 23-25 degrees.The game is forecast as one in which the two teams will share only around 48 points, which is a relatively low total.
A straight bet on Warrington is a disappointing 2/5 on whilst a bet on Huddersfield yields no more than 9/4.
Betting on Warrington at 2/5 on offers absolutely no value when you look at the fact they are playing a team of broadly equal ability and the home advantage is too heavily priced in.
Yet tipping Huddersfield is difficult, even with a +8 handicap, given that they have not won at the Halliwell Jones since the 2010 play offs, nor in any game in the past 24 months and indeed Warrington have repeatedly beaten them and easily covered the spread.
In fact Warrington have comprehensively beaten the Huddersfield Giants in both their games this season and kept them try less in the 28-2 win at home on 22nd March. They also took apart Huddersfield on their own ground with a big 34-12 win at Huddersfield on the 5th May. And they have beaten Huddersfield time and time again in the Challenge Cup including in each of the years when they have won the cup in the modern era.
When we look at the teams, Huddersfield are close to full strength with the unexpected return of Craig Kopczak who had a bicep injury and Luke Robinson who was concussed.
Warrington have worked miracles with their salary cap so they never seem to be understrength but they are without Ryan Atkins, who is likely to be replaced by Rhys Williams and Richie Myler.
Thus my view is that Huddersfield will be comparatively stronger in the backs and more organised. I do not see Chris Riley, Rhys Williams and Lee Briers as being players who will hold back the likes of McGilvary in full flight close to the line.
And this is where we have a potential play.
Warrington are forecast as scoring around a 28-29 point haul and Huddersfield around 20-21 points
The Warrington total is not particularly interesting as it looks relatively high but not improbable and we do not really want to get involved with a handicap that can quickly fall to shreds in a few minutes with a purple patch, and we have already noted the difficulty of forecasting a margin.
But my view on the Huddersfield total is that it looks relatively low. Taking it at 5/6 on its own is not too good. But if we break it into two halves, we only need see a 10 and an 11.
I would think the Giants can score four converted tries at the Halliwell Jones.
I'm thinking in this game that the Giants are going to come flying out of the blocks.
The Three Star tip is: Away Team 1st Half Total Points - Huddersfield to score over 9.5 points 10/11
I am convinced that Huddersfield will score 10 points or more in the first half with their size, power and pace against a backline as mentioned and they have about seven players on double figures of tries all over the park.
The Two Star Tip is: Away Team 2nd Half Total Points - Huddersfield to score over 10.5 points 11/10
This one is slightly more risky as we would need Hudds to score two tries and then Danny Brough to convert both tries, however he is a world class kicker and I can see Hudds taking a penalty if they are in the game.
We would more or less breakeven providing Huddersfield score a couple of tries in one of the two halves and I cannot see them scoring just twice in 80 minutes when they want to make the semi finals.
The one Star tip is Huddersfield first to 10 points - 7/4.
This is a one star play - my belief is that this is a real value bet, as there is little to choose between the two teams. I like bets where the true odds are closer to a coin toss but you get offered much more than evens.
Hudds have 16 wins to Warrington's 15 & 1 draw. Hudds have 655 points to Warrington's 687. Hudds have conceded 389 to Warrington's 367.
Thus I would say that Warrington have a slightly higher probability of scoring the first 10, but not by much, so this one interests me. This is especially so given that Hudds are very likely to accept kickable penalties early in the game.
The evidence for my belief is for all other games than the ones v Warrington. Tthe Giants have scored a minimum of 18 in every game and are averaging over 30 points a game. They have scored 22 or more against the likes of Wigan, Hull and Leeds plus run up a big score against the likes of St Helens and Catalans.
Huddersfield have beaten Wigan, done the double over St Helens and Catalan Dragons and defeated Leeds three times this year and have got 655 points.
I believe that the previous low scores were due to slightly weaker squads, plus one game in snow and being a bit out enthused, but the full house tomorrow includes significant away support and they should score a decent amount of points.
Surely Huddersfield can beat London's total of 20 scored at the Halliwell?
Mark
