Widnes v Wigan tips & write up : Mon Jul 15, 2013 6:03 pm
It should be between 17 and 19 degrees on a warm, dry day.Wigan are close to full strength, aside from Captain O’Loughlin, Elephame Lauaki and the three squad players Thornley, Taylor and L Tomkins
Wigan: Charnley, Crosby, Dudson, Flower, Goulding, Burke, Hansen, Hughes, Tuson, Mossop, O'Loughlin, Green, Richards, Smith, Farrell, Gelling, Hampshire, S. Tomkins, McIlorum.
Widnes have been decimated by unavailability – they have released two of their top 25 in the season in Briscoe and Davies whilst Hock, Phelps, Cross, Pickersgill, Dean, White and Flynn are out tonight. I’d suggest that is their two best centres and three or four props including their best one.
The likes of Gore at Hooker are only likely to play a few minutes here and there to spell the veteran Clarke whilst the likes of Craven, Allen, Gerrard, Kavanagh and Lawton are very much lesser lights; they look very weak.
Widnes: Ah Van, Allen, K. Brown, Cahill, Clarke, Craven, Gerrard, Gore, Hanbury, Isa, Joseph, Kavanagh, Lawton, Leuluai, Marsh, Mellor, O'Carroll, Owens, Winterstein.
Wigan won this fixture about 62-4 earlier on in the season – a +58 margin.
They look like they can cover +28 at evens – that is a 3 star bet. I’d take their to be a patch in the game where the Pies run in three tries in fifteen minutes and their general play to be worth at least three more.
I normally like to divide into two half at around +14 or so, but I think there will be a purple patch for Wigan which carries us home and I worry about easing off with a huge lead in the second half.
My four star bet is Widnes to score no more than 17.5 points. True, they have three strike players in Ah Van, Hanbury and Mellor whilst some commentators rate Brown - I think he is good behind a dominant pack - but the rest of the players are not really capable of more than close in barge tries. I see two tries at best for this poor side devoid of go forward. That’s another three star bet. If they do get in Ah Van, he is likely to be a touchline conversion that hopefully misses.
We're going against the data a bit, but Widnes have been scoring 30 or so from individual efforts and against the bigger sides with a stack of injuries they've scored a bit more.
My final bet and five star play is Liam Farrell to score at any time at 11/10. He is in the top three players in the league for tackle busts at 70+ and will support the likes of Sam Tomkins when he breaks as he is fast and athletic, plus has double figures for tries for the season.
I looked at getting S Tomkins and Charnley at 1/2 on, hesitated and now they are ridiculously odds on, shame really.
I’m looking at Wigan to go 40+ in this game to about 12.
I was highly tempted by +44 at 5/1 but I think they will bring on the younger players like Dudson and Flower if they get so far out, so I reckon +30 is about right.
I'd be over the moon if I'm completely out and Widnes win - good luck to you guys!
