Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:56 am  

I've done a lot of study of the Warrington v Hull KR game and the Huddersfield v Castleford game.

Warrington have the irreplaceable Westwood sat in the stands whilst they will also miss Morley, whilst the absence of Atkins, Grix and Myler seems likely to disrupt their combinations in the backs.

They got off to a flyer against Huddersfield and this was partly down to the fact that the Giants only completed 3 from 12 sets in the first twenty minutes and they had two thirds possession. But they looked weaker after the rotations that is for sure and only scored about 20 points in the last hour.

I believe Warrington will score two of the first three tries at home, so first to 10 points looks a nice bet.

If you look at the data, Hull KR have only conceded 40 points or more three times v Wigan (twice) and Huddersfield but in this game they are fresh, have pretty much their best 17 and are in their best form of the season.

I just do not see Hull KR leaking more than six tries in a game I expect to be much tighter than that, especially as KR beat Warrington 26-12 earlier in the year.

Can Warrington score over 40 points for the second week in a row?
Will the game be one in which over 10 tries are scored?

I believe the answer will, in both counts, be a 'no'.

So the first three bets to consider are these:

Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Total match tries Under +10.5 4/6
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5

The other bets of interest are on Huddersfield.

The Bookies have set the handicap at around 16-18 points and I think Huddersfield will get close to that, especially with Castleford sure to be weaker in the forwards without Keith Mason and Ryan Boyle in the Props and having to throw in Davies and Fleming - squad men in a well coached but limited outfit.

I think Huddersfield will bounce back from an awful performance at Warrington, yet one in which they still scored 24 points with only one third possession. I can see them getting up to around 36 points without much issue and if we look at the tips below we can still afford for Cas to get even four converted tries and still win.

Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Handicap betting 10 Huddersfield Giants -8.0 4/9
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Away team points 2 Under +25.5 1/3
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Half-time/Full-time Huddersfield Giants/Huddersfield Giants 1/3

Now, I can see we would not be happy to take short odds favourites in isolation, as we would still only break even if we get about three from four right.

So my staking strategy for this is that I have gone for 9 doubles in this game, mixing one odds on selection from Warrington with one odds on from Huddersfield and each bet comes in at around evens.

The Bookies will not allow multiple selections from one game as a correlated parlay, so in this one we will run the different permutations on this:

Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Race to 10 Points Warrington Wolves 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Total match tries Under +10.5 4/6
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Handicap betting 10 Huddersfield Giants -8.0 4/9
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Away team points 2 Under +25.5 1/3
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Half-time/Full-time Huddersfield Giants/Huddersfield Giants 1/3

If all these doubles come in our combined odds are slightly over 2:1.

My favourite from all of these is Castleford to score under 25.5 points at Huddersfield - I just cannot see them scoring five tries nor being in the game long enough to be looking to take kickable penalties.

Rammo

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:59 pm  

At Half Time we look set for Hudds to win at half time and full time, Hudds to win by +8 and Warrington first to 10 points.

We can only really get done if Castleford score 4 tries in the second half in that game and Hudds do nothing.

Whilst on the other side of things if there are eight more tries shared between the teams or Warrington score 5 converted tries in 40 minutes then we will lose on several of our permutations and lose money overall.

Warrington will play a higher risk offload game if they build a winning margin so let us hope KR can keep in the game for as long as possible.

Keep the faith
Rammo

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 3:36 pm  

A clean sweep on the Warrington game.

An unbelievable last forty five minutes for Castleford as they take their total from zero to thirty two

We do ok with most of our permutations coming in but my big win single on Cas to score less than 26 means I don't do too great despite 5 from 6 selections coming in but anyone who followed my predictions does ok.

Overconfidence is always an enemy of any punter

Cheers
Mark

PS Wigan looks a gift game tomorrow

St Helens v Wigan tips : Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:36 pm  

Wigan rest S Tomkins & O'Loughlin and the Bookies make the two teams almost unseparable?

That doesn't wash with me...

Saints are without Roby who is their last remaining world class player plus the likes of Gardner, Soliola, Perry, Roby, Flanagan and Wheeler and have a side packed full of academy players, old veterans and loanees.

Look at their record at Langtree Park this year...

Rd 1 - St Helens 4 Huddersfield 40 - LOSS
Rd 3 - St Helens 22 Hull 22 - DRAW
Rd 5 - St Helens 12 Leeds 20 - LOSS
Rd 7 - St Helens 52 Wakefield 18 - WIN
Rd 8 - St Helens 14 Salford 10 - WIN
Rd 9 - St Helens 48 Castleford 18 - WIN
Rd 12- St Helens 12 Catalans 22 - LOSS
Rd 14- St Helens 28 Widnes 35 - LOSS
Rd 18- St Helens 30 Bradford 18 - WIN
Rd 20- St Helens 12 Hull KR 24 - LOSS

Saints haven't beaten a top eight team at home all season and have struggled against the likes of Salford & Widnes.

I'm 100% sure that Wigan will win this comfortably and have taken them on 6/5 at -4.

I'm that sure on this one I have put my full betting bank on, which I rarely do

Re: St Helens v Wigan tips : Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:01 pm  

markrammond wrote:

Wigan rest S Tomkins & O'Loughlin and the Bookies make the two teams almost unseparable?

That doesn't wash with me...

Saints are without Roby who is their last remaining world class player plus the likes of Gardner, Soliola, Perry, Roby, Flanagan and Wheeler and have a side packed full of academy players, old veterans and loanees.

Look at their record at Langtree Park this year...

Rd 1 - St Helens 4 Huddersfield 40 - LOSS
Rd 3 - St Helens 22 Hull 22 - DRAW
Rd 5 - St Helens 12 Leeds 20 - LOSS
Rd 7 - St Helens 52 Wakefield 18 - WIN
Rd 8 - St Helens 14 Salford 10 - WIN
Rd 9 - St Helens 48 Castleford 18 - WIN
Rd 12- St Helens 12 Catalans 22 - LOSS
Rd 14- St Helens 28 Widnes 35 - LOSS
Rd 18- St Helens 30 Bradford 18 - WIN
Rd 20- St Helens 12 Hull KR 24 - LOSS

Saints haven't beaten a top eight team at home all season and have struggled against the likes of Salford & Widnes.

I'm 100% sure that Wigan will win this comfortably and have taken them on 6/5 at -4.

I'm that sure on this one I have put my full betting bank on, which I rarely do

"Form goes out of the window in a derby"

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:46 pm  

Although we are garbage, I am sure that Wigan players will have 1 eye on the semi final. I rarely regret the bets I make but I am furious with myself for being so overconfident on Hull. Wigan should win comfortably but I don't think ill be having a bet.

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:58 pm  

If I was seeing names like Roby, Wellens, Soliola, Wheeler and Perry I might have considered St Helens

I just can't see how the likes of Joe Greenwood, Luke Thompson, Stuart Howarth, Gareth O'Brien and Greg Richards will be enough to beat Wigan.

It is not as if the quantity of experienced players are exceptional anymore either.

For me Wigan is a cert; they need the points that is for sure.

By comparison Hull FC needed the points but they are a 75% win team at the KC but about a 45% win team away.

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Mon Jul 22, 2013 7:36 am  

Wigan -2 Evens with the kind gents at Bet365. Can no longer resist and I have rowed in. Good luck all.

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:47 am  

I have to agree.

I had to take a second look on the spreads when I saw it was an even 1.5 / 1.5

I think Wigan will win this fixture 8 times out of 10. Am especially tempted by Wigan at -8 and 0.33 on the binaries.

Re: Super League tips for this afternoon : Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:42 am  

If I was to set the line on this one, I'd have set -16 for the full Wigan team, but probably dropped to about -10 for the loss of S Tomkins & O'Loughlin.

However, I'd say Roby is a +4 player for St Helens, so I reckon Wigan should be about -14 or so.

I think Saints have got a decent thirteen with a probable team of: Wellens, Meli, Turner, Jones, Makinson, Lomax, O'Brien, McCarthy-Scarsbrook, Hohaia, Puletua, Wilkin, Manu, Clough

But an interchange of four from Greenwood, Walmsley, Thompson, Richards, Laffranchi, Howarth, is not strong enough, so I'd think they might swap a couple of starters out

I think Wigan will go with: Hampshire, Charnley, Gelling, Goulding, Richards, Green, Smith, Mossop, McIlorum, Taylor, Crosby, Farrell, Tuson,

Interchange from: Dudson, Flower, Burke, Hughes, S. Powell, L. Tomkins

My belief is that the Bookies were expecting Wigan to rest many more but they just haven't. At worst now they may introduce S.Powell & L.Tomkins and rest McIlorum and Green or Smith unless they are planning to fiddle the squad declaration with several late withdrawals.

I don't know how they feel losing a local derby will benefit them for the semi final though, and I think Warrington away will be an unwanted opponent in the playoffs so they will not be too silly.

Cheers
Rammo