Fair enough - I don't think we're disagreeing a great deal in terms of them being on the slide. Just maybe about the degree of their drop off. You're right about 18 months having the potential to be a long time in sport too. It has to be given the amount of ground we had to make up to go past them - which we obviously have.
My view is simply that we shouldn't overdo their decline too early, especially when they're missing half a team. Injuries will probably stop them finishing in the top two, but with a few key players back they are still a force to be reckoned with, and I'd make them decent favourites against both Hull KR and Wire away because of what they've done in the past, and their ability to win big games. Even this season we can look to Good Friday as an example for how their defence and intensity can cause anyone problems.
I suppose this is a long winded way of saying that if I were a Saints fan, I'd feel pretty gloomy about their prospects for the next couple of years but actually feel pretty optimistic about doing something this campaign.
I'm not sure I buy into this particular narrative any more, given the record we have in the big games under Wellens so far. You could argue we were unlucky in both semis last year but we didn't score enough points in either and our record against the teams in and around us in the SL table is shocking. If that sort of record continues we have some very tough fixtures remaining in the regular season and the table is already pretty tight.
Got some pretty big concerns with the coaching too, the use of interchanges was appalling this weekend and went a long way to deciding the game in my view. Royle was thrown on at prop and got smashed early, Davies only got on for the last two minutes, and we only used 6/8 interchanges on the hottest day of the year. Madness.
With all that said we rarely if ever get blown away and have some significant players missing. I don't particularly enjoy the tactics but they are effective with a full pack - we are perfectly capable of dominating territory against most sides if we have all our forwards back for the business end of the season. Whether we can score enough points remains to be seen, personally I don't think we have enough strike in the backline any more but anything can happen as we saw on Good Friday..
Longer term I'm not sure, I don't think the coach is the right fit personally so a lot will hinge on his future. There is a big turnover of players coming from 25 onwards and with the seeming reluctance to give youth a chance I have my doubts.
This is the big one I haven't yet mentioned, SFW, and I think you hit the nail squarely on the head. I've concentrated on the decline in playing staff but of course the biggest decline comes at the top. There was a good case for both Woolf and Holbrook being the best coaches in Superleague but if I asked what the pecking order was between Matt Peet, Willie Peters, Paul Rowley, Steve McNamara and Paul Wellens I doubt anyone would have Wellens in the top 3. Even Sam Burgess, only weeks into his head coach career, would finish above him on many lists. That's some fall from grace! And then we get the perceived unwillingness to splash the cash from the Saints board that many of your fans are complaining about (certainly in comparison to Mike Danson for example) and it doesn't paint a good picture.
I think Stu's point is a very valid one. The competition needs as many strong teams as possible and, like it or not, that's driven predominantly by Wigan, Saints, Leeds, Catalans and Warrington. Hull KR have joined that group recently and the likes of Leigh are starting to make strides in the right direction but a weakened Saints is not good for the competition. The youngsters coming through may reverse the trend but I think that's a few years away, if indeed it ever materializes. I don't think Wellens is the coach to speed that transition up either unless his hand is forced.
This is the big one I haven't yet mentioned, SFW, and I think you hit the nail squarely on the head. I've concentrated in the decline in playing staff but of course the biggest decline comes at the top. There was a good case for both Woolf and Holbrook being the best coaches in Superleague but if I asked what the pecking order was between Matt Peet, Willie Peters, Paul Rowley, Steve McNamara and Paul Wellens I doubt anyone would have Wellens in the top 3. Even Sam Burgess, only weeks into his head coach career, would finish above him on many lists. That's some fall from grace! And then we get the perceived unwillingness to splash the cash from the Saints board that many of your fans are complaining about (certainly in comparison to Mike Danson for example) and it doesn't paint a good picture.
I think Stu's point is a very valid one. The competition needs as many strong teams as possible and, like it or not, that's driven predominantly by Wigan, Saints, Leeds, Catalans and Warrington. Hull KR have joined that group recently and the likes of Leigh are starting to make strides in the right direction but a weakened Saints is not good for the competition. The youngsters coming through may reverse the trend but I think that's a few years away, if indeed it ever materializes. I don't think Wellens is the coach to speed that transition up either unless his hand is forced.
I don't think on the face of things it looks particularly bad, and it would be easy to explain away some of the more high-profile losses due to injuries. I've even mentioned elsewhere that I almost expected a drop in standards given the recent successes - the only way was down after 4 consecutive GF wins and a WCC in Australia. But there's an awful lot below the surface that concerns me.
I don't think any player has dramatically improved under Wellens which is the main measure of any coach (for me anyway). He has no problem getting the team playing to his particular tune, but tactically we don't have much versatility and if a team can exploit our mostly rigid defence then there is little to suggest we have the capacity to claw them back. Easy wins against the bottom half and low-scoring, tight games with mixed results against the top half is the general theme of the last 18 months, which I agree is a considerable drop in standards.
In terms of splashing the cash, transfer fees are so rare I wouldn't even consider one unless there was an outstanding player available for the right price - that not a point worthy of criticism IMO. If we were in a position to act then maybe that would be different, but we are up to the cap (or close enough) as of now. By all accounts they are actively looking at the market for next year but some of the cap space has been dependent on Mata'uita's situation, unfortunately it looks like he's leaving too so we should have a chunk to spend but only one quota space unless we choose to release Hurrell and/or Blake aswell. The market isn't great and internal retentions and promotions will take a bite out of what will be available, but there should be room for an established back and hooker/half depending on where the club see Mbye fitting in next year. The club clearly have long term faith in the most recent professionals and a few more below them who will become full-time next year. I would much rather invest in them and maintaining those pathways than on big fees for players and I'm glad the club see it that way too.
Whether the coach is the one to bring these through successfully remains to be seen, but even in our 'lean' years Saints have never missed the playoffs in the GF era and I've no doubt we will still be competing given the current standard of the rest of the competition. Obviously the kind of success we have recently enjoyed will be far more difficult to attain given Wigan's improvement but we are still going to be in contention and involved in the big games for a while yet.
Competing might be good enough for the club over the next couple of years why the squad transitions but it looks a massive job to balance the squad given we have 9 players out of contract this season (excluding Dodd and Makinson) and 13 as it stands in 2025. On top of that there are the likes of Lomax, Walmsley, Percival and Clark up in 26, all of whom you would expect to retire or move on, and then longer-term we have Welsby and Delaney who already have admirers in the NRL. Some very important short and long term issues at the club right now.
what are you're views on Welsby given the current situation Saints appear to be in? He has won everything there is to win over here at a young age Do you think he'll show some loyalty and see out this (or his next) contract in a bid to get Saints back to where the fans want them to be or do you think he'll take a chance in the NRL if it comes to him? i'm also assuming there will be some sort of release clause in his last contract
one of the things i've praised Saints with over recent years, has been the ability to know when to let a player go, and not letting them go on for a season or 2 too long. Wigan were masters at it many years ago, and appear now to be getting that little bit of the ruthless streak you need when it comes to contract negotiations. Saints appear to have slipped a little in that regards IMO, do you agree or think some of the contract extensions have been warranted and the players performed to their highest standards (i'm ignoring Roby in this conversation because of the standard / level he played at all his career)
what are you're views on Welsby given the current situation Saints appear to be in? He has won everything there is to win over here at a young age Do you think he'll show some loyalty and see out this (or his next) contract in a bid to get Saints back to where the fans want them to be or do you think he'll take a chance in the NRL if it comes to him? i'm also assuming there will be some sort of release clause in his last contract
one of the things i've praised Saints with over recent years, has been the ability to know when to let a player go, and not letting them go on for a season or 2 too long. Wigan were masters at it many years ago, and appear now to be getting that little bit of the ruthless streak you need when it comes to contract negotiations. Saints appear to have slipped a little in that regards IMO, do you agree or think some of the contract extensions have been warranted and the players performed to their highest standards (i'm ignoring Roby in this conversation because of the standard / level he played at all his career)
I was resigned to losing Welsby given all the achievements you state (plus the England captaincy) and was very pleasantly surprised when he signed again. Don't think there is a clause in his contract although I stand to be corrected, I certainly hope not as most of our attacking threat is carried by him currently. He's certainly got the game to succeed over there but he's still only 23, I think it's simply a matter of if/when he chooses to go.
The contracts for 2026 I mention above, I don't think an external coach comes in and gives them out personally. Lomax, Percival and Walmsley have all spent significant time on the treatment table and I think we would be in a better position from a cap spend perspective if we had been more ruthless and kept them waiting until this point of the season before making decisions on all three. With that said I can't really speak to the succession plan as it isn't particularly clear given the contract status of most of the squad - there is every chance we have offered them longer deals on reduced terms with a view to naturally phasing them out for the likes of Robertson, Whitby, Vaughan and Stephens. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Wigan have a lot of players tied up long term, it looks like a smart move now given the current state of the market but the true test of that will be in another 18 months - how is the cap going to be managed if and when players fall out of favour with time left on their deals, and will it prevent the club from being able to offer good deals to the next batch of players? The short term succession plan for players looks pretty clear but Wigan have been more susceptible to NRL interest than most so even that is not without risk.
I was resigned to losing Welsby given all the achievements you state (plus the England captaincy) and was very pleasantly surprised when he signed again. Don't think there is a clause in his contract although I stand to be corrected, I certainly hope not as most of our attacking threat is carried by him currently. He's certainly got the game to succeed over there but he's still only 23, I think it's simply a matter of if/when he chooses to go.
The contracts for 2026 I mention above, I don't think an external coach comes in and gives them out personally. Lomax, Percival and Walmsley have all spent significant time on the treatment table and I think we would be in a better position from a cap spend perspective if we had been more ruthless and kept them waiting until this point of the season before making decisions on all three. With that said I can't really speak to the succession plan as it isn't particularly clear given the contract status of most of the squad - there is every chance we have offered them longer deals on reduced terms with a view to naturally phasing them out for the likes of Robertson, Whitby, Vaughan and Stephens. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Wigan have a lot of players tied up long term, it looks like a smart move now given the current state of the market but the true test of that will be in another 18 months - how is the cap going to be managed if and when players fall out of favour with time left on their deals, and will it prevent the club from being able to offer good deals to the next batch of players? The short term succession plan for players looks pretty clear but Wigan have been more susceptible to NRL interest than most so even that is not without risk.
it really is difficult and i wouldnt want to be managing the cap. I have a friend associated with the club, and he told me how many iterations of the cap they went through last year to accomodate changes i.e Dupree in and Singleton out plus the signings for this year
i suppose the good thing in our favour now with the changes to the cap is that you can pay Jack whatever you want and it will only cost £50k cap wise, but clearly the club has to be able to afford anything over and above that. You only need to look at Cunningham, Roby, Scully (i know he signed from Wire), LMS to show that you can have a good career over here and dont have to go over to Oz, especially if he's in a side challenging and equally getting good international exposure (if we can ever get the international calendar right)
i know Stu and think there's another poster who speak highly of some of your academy stars, but is all about timing and getting the balance right, whether that be through good planning or sheer luck. i think Isa may have stopped Junior getting some good game time this year, but bad luck for Isa, and good luck for Junior, has meant he's now getting good game time and looking like he can play at that level week in week out (and i know there is likely to be a dip at some point for him, but we need to manage that). From what i've seen on TV, a couple of your lads are looking ready or close to ready, but its bedding them into a consistent / successful team as you've been able to do over the last few years, and i think that makes a big difference to how they go, especially if your team is playing iwth confidence
onto the 5 year contracts, it is a slightly different approach, but hopefully we'll see the best of the players, whilst managing other recruitment i.e. Cooper, Isa likely to go this year, Farrell probably next year which opens up 1st team spots for Hill, Junior and Walters for example, plus all 3 have had good experience this year. There is no doubt we wont get it right with all our player retention, and we'll still lose some good kids, but we cant keep them all. I know i've posted on the Warriors fans forum and Forber could be an example of this, where O'Neill has stepped up probably ssoner than anticipated, and Leeming gone from starting 9 to bench, so highlighting the risks / challenge as we have him on a 4 year contract, with O'Neill and Forber both chomping at the bit for 1st team
it really is difficult and i wouldnt want to be managing the cap. I have a friend associated with the club, and he told me how many iterations of the cap they went through last year to accomodate changes i.e Dupree in and Singleton out plus the signings for this year
i suppose the good thing in our favour now with the changes to the cap is that you can pay Jack whatever you want and it will only cost £50k cap wise, but clearly the club has to be able to afford anything over and above that. You only need to look at Cunningham, Roby, Scully (i know he signed from Wire), LMS to show that you can have a good career over here and dont have to go over to Oz, especially if he's in a side challenging and equally getting good international exposure (if we can ever get the international calendar right)
i know Stu and think there's another poster who speak highly of some of your academy stars, but is all about timing and getting the balance right, whether that be through good planning or sheer luck. i think Isa may have stopped Junior getting some good game time this year, but bad luck for Isa, and good luck for Junior, has meant he's now getting good game time and looking like he can play at that level week in week out (and i know there is likely to be a dip at some point for him, but we need to manage that). From what i've seen on TV, a couple of your lads are looking ready or close to ready, but its bedding them into a consistent / successful team as you've been able to do over the last few years, and i think that makes a big difference to how they go, especially if your team is playing iwth confidence
onto the 5 year contracts, it is a slightly different approach, but hopefully we'll see the best of the players, whilst managing other recruitment i.e. Cooper, Isa likely to go this year, Farrell probably next year which opens up 1st team spots for Hill, Junior and Walters for example, plus all 3 have had good experience this year. There is no doubt we wont get it right with all our player retention, and we'll still lose some good kids, but we cant keep them all. I know i've posted on the Warriors fans forum and Forber could be an example of this, where O'Neill has stepped up probably ssoner than anticipated, and Leeming gone from starting 9 to bench, so highlighting the risks / challenge as we have him on a 4 year contract, with O'Neill and Forber both chomping at the bit for 1st team
I'd be willing to walk over personally but everyone is different. If Welsby is a home bird like O'Loughlin, Roby etc then I won't be complaining.
Agree with the importance of planning and there's been a big debate about it on Redvee. We've heard about this generation of new kids and how good they are for a while now, so I think patience is wearing a bit thin waiting for them to get their chance (Stephens excepted). It's important that they are drip fed into a settled team and with so many players currently injured I can understand why it hasn't happened yet. Maybe London was the opportunity to give Vaughan a run in hindsight, personally I was happy to err on the side of caution and rack up the points difference given they had two weeks off prior and another week off coming up. But when we see the likes of Farrimond and Eckersley fitting in and performing straight away it ramps up the pressure even more and I can understand the criticism.
I still think most are a while off, maybe Vaughan this year and the rest next year, maybe longer still. With all that said, Delaney and Stephens got their chance due to injury and both have took it. Given Wellens' track record with his interchange management maybe they will all only get in due to an injury crisis
I'd be willing to walk over personally but everyone is different. If Welsby is a home bird like O'Loughlin, Roby etc then I won't be complaining.
Agree with the importance of planning and there's been a big debate about it on Redvee. We've heard about this generation of new kids and how good they are for a while now, so I think patience is wearing a bit thin waiting for them to get their chance (Stephens excepted). It's important that they are drip fed into a settled team and with so many players currently injured I can understand why it hasn't happened yet. Maybe London was the opportunity to give Vaughan a run in hindsight, personally I was happy to err on the side of caution and rack up the points difference given they had two weeks off prior and another week off coming up. But when we see the likes of Farrimond and Eckersley fitting in and performing straight away it ramps up the pressure even more and I can understand the criticism.
I still think most are a while off, maybe Vaughan this year and the rest next year, maybe longer still. With all that said, Delaney and Stephens got their chance due to injury and both have took it. Given Wellens' track record with his interchange management maybe they will all only get in due to an injury crisis
When you say they a while off, do you mean mentally, physically, or both? The other question is, are the likes of Vaughan better than those that are currently substituting for injured players? The only way of knowing if these lads have what it takes is to present them with the opportunity at first team level, the reserves competition will do little to accelerate their development. It can be surprising what impact a first team appearance can have on a young lad. Farrimond is not the biggest but he has took the opportunity with both hands, it has given him the confidence to perform at a higher level, and it also gives the coaches a welcome selection headache.
Certainly both at this stage. Vaughan has been playing pretty regularly for Swinton on dual reg and I think that is a path these lads will follow after the reserves before coming into the first team picture. He was 18th man against London which would indicate he's nearly ready in the eyes of the coaching staff. I would have no problem picking Vaughan as long as he is given a fair go, unlike Royle or Davies on Sunday.
The likes of Burns, Cowen, Roberts and Bailey have also played for Swinton in recent weeks. Of those Burns is the oldest and most physically developed, he had a good season on DR for Crusaders last term and he should be close to an opportunity. Cowen has had some eye catching performances but the rest are still finding their feet by all accounts.
Below that there are some exciting prospects coming into the first team squad next year who I would expect to follow Vaughan's current trajectory.
Certainly both at this stage. Vaughan has been playing pretty regularly for Swinton on dual reg and I think that is a path these lads will follow after the reserves before coming into the first team picture. He was 18th man against London which would indicate he's nearly ready in the eyes of the coaching staff. I would have no problem picking Vaughan as long as he is given a fair go, unlike Royle or Davies on Sunday.
The likes of Burns, Cowen, Roberts and Bailey have also played for Swinton in recent weeks. Of those Burns is the oldest and most physically developed, he had a good season on DR for Crusaders last term and he should be close to an opportunity. Cowen has had some eye catching performances but the rest are still finding their feet by all accounts.
Below that there are some exciting prospects coming into the first team squad next year who I would expect to follow Vaughan's current trajectory.
Vaughan is too small for an edge forward and too slow to play centre. He’s another Sam Royle.
That’s why wellens won’t play him, despite the mass hysteria on redvee.
There are only 2 good youngsters at saints who haven’t made their debut yet. Robertson and Whitby. Both of whom are massively inferior to farrimond.
Mike rush mentioned a golden generation coming and all the toothless simpletons at redvee bought it lol
