Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:47 am  

Tip given had a go EW

Lingfield 14:30 Bu Naaji 6/1

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:38 pm  

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:36 pm  

Steve Beaton to bt Mark Webster @ 13/8 Tonight.

Beaton produced a quality performance to dispose of Terry Jenkins on the first night 10-3. His average was just above 100, compared to Webster who beat John Part on the same night 10-8 averaged under 90. Add to that, Beatons checkout percentage was double that of Webster 48% vs 24%. Websters the better player of the two but he aint exactly been setting the world alight since his introduction to the Premier League and in all fairness, Part should have beat him on Sunday. I priced this one up as 8/11 Webster vs Evens Beaton so the 13/8 at Hills is a fair price for me. Hopefully The Bronzed Adonis will shine !!

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:06 pm  

YORK GLORY for tomorrow at donny 7.25 pm 3/1

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:03 pm  

Taken Seville @33s for the king george. Will explain why tomorrow..

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:12 pm  

Roonaldo6 wrote:

Steve Beaton to bt Mark Webster @ 13/8 Tonight.

Beaton produced a quality performance to dispose of Terry Jenkins on the first night 10-3. His average was just above 100, compared to Webster who beat John Part on the same night 10-8 averaged under 90. Add to that, Beatons checkout percentage was double that of Webster 48% vs 24%. Websters the better player of the two but he aint exactly been setting the world alight since his introduction to the Premier League and in all fairness, Part should have beat him on Sunday. I priced this one up as 8/11 Webster vs Evens Beaton so the 13/8 at Hills is a fair price for me. Hopefully The Bronzed Adonis will shine !!

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:33 pm  

Live Wired wrote:

Taken Seville @33s for the king george. Will explain why tomorrow..

Looking forward to reading why... Can't see pass WF

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:47 pm  

Seville needs a rest surely - been involved in three battles, as well as running at Epsom and not seeming to like the track.

E/W will only pay out on the first two, and, while it may not be a shock for one of the top three in the betting to underperform, I cannot sense two out of the three will be out of the places and that one of them will not win it. Nathaniel likes Ascot too, and must be working well at home for Gosden to supplement him as he isn't the sort of trainer to run a horse for the sake of it.

The way I see it, Seville will be ridden same way as he was in France to try and steal a march from the front incase Debussy doesn't make enough of the running. He doesn't want for SNA to have to commit too soon, as if it is the same scenario as at the Royal meeting then Rewilding could gallop past the lot of them as the line is looming.

My feeling is though that Rewilding got the run of the race that day and the cards dropped exactly as Frankie would've wanted - without taking anything away from the horse or jockey. Jan Vermeer was a poor choice of pacemaker too. Workforce, as a Derby and Arc winner, is obviously the call on all known stats - back at his optimum trip too, just a pity his only run at Ascot was such a poor one, still, who knows, it may just've came too soon after a hell of a run at Epsom. St Nicholas Abbey has always been the apple of Aiden's eye and could well still be on the upgrade. After hating the undulations of Tattenham Corner and looking all at sea, the turn of foot he produced up the Epsom home straight was blistering. He may still be improving. A lot is made of his 6th in the Guineas - well, in hindsight it wasn't too bad of a run considering he is a middle distance horse, not a miler, and his sire is renowned for producing offspring similar to himself - top class middle distance. AOB admitted this year he cocked up SNA last season and shouldn't of trained him for the Guineas so just wrote the season off. His comeback run at the Curragh was below expectations but the ground was very soft that day and was the horse's first run for ages - he looked badly in need of a run before and during the race.

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:58 pm  

Had a little on Famous Name for tomorrow at Leopardstown, 4/5. Expect it will go off nearer 4/7. Will monitor the betting tomorrow after work and maybe top up.

Dunboyne Express now has questions to answer and should give him a run for his money, as he receives a handy weight-for-age allowance, but Famous Name is a different class outside group one company. Hasn't been beaten in this sort of company since October 09, and although usually comes up well short at group one level he seems to know when its his day.

Re: Betting Chat : Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:35 pm  

mwildcats wrote:

Looking forward to reading why... Can't see pass WF

Totally irrelevant now, but the main reason was the question marks against the other horses, 1 in particular.

Rewilding-Prefers fast ground, 12f, a rest of 5 weeks + and has a liking for the course. On the negative side, has soft ground form, but when racing on soft ground, the only horse considered group 1 class whom he has raced against, has beaten him-Planteur. His Ascot win has been boosted by the HYPE horse subsequently, but of the 2, Rewilding had the tougher race, and it's quite possible the race could have left a mark on him. Though, imo, he should be fav for the KG.

St Nicholas Abbey- High class at 2, failed at 3, and at 4, beat listed class at Chester, and needed every yard of the long straight at Epsom to get going and eventually beat Midday, who many say, was given a poor ride. Soft ground suits it, but not convinced about the short home straight.

Workforce- Has the soft ground and distance he craves. Not sure if the course suits or not, but in his 3 races in fields of 6 or less, he has lost all 3 times. His sire stats for Ascot, ( Taken off Betfair forum) are 1 win from 82 starts in class 1 or 2 races. And he has not had a 5 week break, after 2 relatively quick runs.

Nathaniel- Has no group 1 form, though has c/d and soft ground. Potentially 1 of the best middle distance 3yos around, but imo, it's a pisspoor bunch, except for Meandre and Pour Moi.

Debussey- Front runner/ pacesetter. Has soft ground form, won grade 1 in America and a grade 2 in France. Worth another try over 12f after failing 3 times on fast ground in the past.

So, Workforce @ 6/4( has too many negatives), has to be the lay of the top 3. And no doubt after having too many pints on saturday afternoon, I shall be throwing a few quid e/w at Debussey 100/1. He would'nt be the 1st Godolfin pacemaker to win a group 1 around Ascot