Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:21 am  

Just to get back to the Frankel discussion, and to clear up a few things about other horses mentioned.
Zafonic- Produced 4 high class performances that marked him as brilliant, and not 1. 3 group 1s at 2, Morny, Jean Luc Lagardare and Dewhurst, and The Guineas at 3. Beating amongst others, Kingmambo and Barathea.( High class milers in their own right) Never ran again until his ill-fated Sussex run, 1 must assume that he was injured between races.
Hawk Wing- Group1 winner at 2. 2nd in 2000 guineas ( badly drawn) to Rock of Gibraltar ( won 7 group 1s). 2nd in the derby (12l to the 3rd) to High Chapparal (won 6 group 1s). Won Eclipse and Lochinge. Effective in his career from 7f-12f. His 3 bad runs came at Ascot x2 and Arlington, where it can be argued that the short straight never played to his strengths.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:38 am  

Free bet has gone on this.

4:30 Newbury - Zain Al Boldan @ 6/1

Dropped in class and back on quick ground will hopefully show the Lingfield run wasn't a fluke, Hughes onboard.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:40 am  

Now for the rating given to Frankel being 1lb below Sea The Stars.
I've been very sceptical about ratings, since Masterminded was given 185 (ims) for winning the Champion Chase.

By the time Frankel had won the Sussex, STS had already won the Guineas, Eclipse and Derby, 8f-12f. He went onto win another 3 group 1s over 10 and 12f. Basically, he had shown brilliance over 3 distances, frankel had done it over just 2. Taking the times of Frankel's 3 group 1 wins this season;

2000 Guineas- 3rd slowest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Zafonic
St James's Palace- 4th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Shamardal
Sussex- 5th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Aljabr.

Now timeratings are not an exact science, too many things to take into account, going etc, but they do give a rough guide to ability. No doubt Frankel is a high class miler, but, to be a high class horse, he must show it over other distances, namely, upto 10f ( stamina doubts on the damside and when Cecil has had potentially high class colts in the past at 2yo, his normal route would have been Racing Post trophy, the usually the Dante at 3.), or drop back to 6f.

Every sport needs a superstar, this year it's Frankel in racing, and the need for a superstar brings hype. Hopefully, the hype is justified, I just need more proof.

It's all about opinions, what a boring world it would be if we all thought the same way. Talking of opinions, Snow Fairy is now becoming very interesting for the Arc, hopefully, the Irish Champion 1st...

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:53 pm  

Live Wired wrote:

No doubt Frankel is a high class miler, but, to be a high class horse, he must show it over other distances, namely, upto 10f

Which Zafonic didn't do. You can't have it both ways.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:30 pm  

Done Goldikova. If she gets beat today I will be tempted to pack in backing horses. Sahpresa was ridden poorly last time out and Timepiece got the first run. They are two good horses, with preference for the former, but Goldikova would have to massively underperform from her last run to be beaten.

Can see Khalid Abdulla collecting a continental group one today, but not in France.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 2:08 pm  

worthing wire wrote:

Which Zafonic didn't do. You can't have it both ways.

No he never, but was a group 1 winner over 6,7 and 1 mile. Could be wrong, but don't recall Zafonic being mentioned for or aimed at middle distance races, which Frankel was/is.

Think Khalid Abdullah will be very cautious about putting Frankel up in distance. Reckon he learned a lesson with Warning, when he upped him to 10f in the Eclipse, and failed miserably, and sending him to the breeders cup where he also failed. Just looking through Warning's race record brings back some memories. Doyoun, Salse, Nashwan, Most Welcome, fantastic era.

Would expect to see Frankel starting off in the Lochinge, then Queen Anne, then Sussex again. A race that ended both Zafonic and Warning for K Abdullah and a race that no horse has ever won twice

goldikova has just gone in again. Now there is a horse that can be classed as brilliant

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 2:33 pm  

Why did you lay her?

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 2:46 pm  

Live Wired wrote:

goldikova has just gone in again. Now there is a horse that can be classed as brilliant

Who was beaten by Canford Cliffs, who was mullered by Frankel. I backed Canford at the weekend but will hold my hands up and say the better horse won on the day. Frankel is absolutely top class.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 3:06 pm  

Piled on Famous Name. Has plenty in hand over his rivals and according to the RP this track will suit him.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Jul 31, 2011 3:13 pm  

Looks like Famous Name was 2nd, although you can't tell much on an ATR split screen with no commentary.

I'm usually a big fan of Smullen but why he let the leader get such a big lead on such soft ground I'll never know.

There's enough to consider when backing a horse without having to factor for the jockey cocking it up.

Good job I made a decent profit on Goodwood.

Thats it til next Saturday, see what that throws up.