Re: Betting Chat : Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:50 pm  

The reasons for backing DELEGATOR are based around my ratings, the horses' stats, past races and the price.

I only bet on pattern and conditions races. My ratings are based around the offical handicappers official ratings.
95-105- listed class
102- 112 group 3
109-119- group 2
118+ group 1. You'll see, these overlap, due to my belief, that certain races should not carry the status they are given.ie, The Ribblesdale should be listed/ group 3 at best, whilst The Lennox, should be group 1 and not group 2, just by looking at the quality of previous winners. The Haydock sprint should be lowered to group 2 at best, previous winners would suggest this.

Taking the old adage that a horse will perform to it's full ability when given it's optimum conditions, lead me to Delegator. when racing on its favoured conditions of good ground+, on a straight course and between 6-8f, his record reads 5112151. His 1st 5th was beaten 3l from the worst draw ( July Cup), his last 5th, was beaten by a length (bunch finish- Dewhurst). His highest OR has been 121 ( group 1 class), achieved when racing on his optimum conditions, which he is forecast to get this saturday.

Next best would be Bated Breath on 118. His main problem is that he has no 7f form. May sound daft, but for a few years now, breeders have been more concerned with getting 8-10f horses, thus sacrificing the sprinters and stayers, this proberley explains why there is not much difference between sprint handicappers and group class sprinters. The breeding aspect is becoming very evident in the last 4 winners. Not only has each winner won over 7f, 1 has won over a mile, 2 have placed, and 1 was unplaced. Here is where Bated Breath fails.

I'm not saying Bated Breath won't win, he has an outstanding chance, but at double his price, Delegator has his conditions,ergo, he must be the value.

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:21 pm  

Hoof It for me... only 5/2 in the Nunthorpe and now 6/1 for Bet Baldys race. I'll be mopping plenty of that up thank you very much.

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:10 pm  

Roonaldo6 wrote:

Hoof It for me... only 5/2 in the Nunthorpe and now 6/1 for Bet Baldys race. I'll be mopping plenty of that up thank you very much.

Tempted myself too mate, didn't run too bad at York and was staying on well towards the end. Saw him in the parade ring before the Nunthorpe and he's huge, absolute machine of a horse. I think I'll be getting on at 6/1.

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:43 pm  

Shadows Gold - 2:40 Hereford - 9/1

A bit of a quirky horse who could close if he wants to win today, 12lb than what he was lto where he was far too keen but won at Stratford 2 starts ago where he clocked a faster time in his winning race than Sansili did now rated 118. Cheekpieces on also so hopefully they'll help him settle.

Re: Betting Chat : Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:10 pm  

Had a good word for Spunky (Ooh Aye) 7:50 Kempton.

Don't blow your load aye !.

Re: Betting Chat : Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:03 pm  

Late one

Biba Diva 3:15 Sailsbury e/w at 16/1 worth a poke.

Re: Betting Chat : Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:09 pm  

Horses I've backed these past two Saturdays have ran like drains, so think I'll have a good like at Pricewise in the morning. Leopardstown looks a class card, and then there are top races on all afternoon too. Quality racing over a 5hr period, not just the usual 2.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 8:25 am  

Ascot 2:05 -Starboard

This nicely bred colt from John Gosden's yard has been working very well at home working all over Johnny Castle (rated 92), Gosden can ready a newcomer and this Royal Lodge entry can win here on the way to much better things a decent bet for me @ 11/4,

Good luck on your bets

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:33 am  

Already bet in the Sprint Cup;
DELEGATOR 10/1
HITCHENS 25/1

2 singles and a double today;

BRONZE CANYON 18/1.....2.15 Kempton.

Taking a bit of a flyer with this 1, but anywhere near back to his best, and he'll go close. Hopefully, his new trainer will rejuvenate him. All his best form has come on r-h courses. 81111731173. Including a couple of group 2s. The worse of those results were on his debut, in a group 1 and on slower ground than was officially given. looks to need 10f+, fast ground and a fast run race, with Harris Tweed in opposition, this should be guaranteed. Queally's only ride at Kempton before moving to Ascot.

RECITAL 16/1...6.45 Leopardstown

Up against the Hype Horse and a stupid price for a group 1 winner. Snow Fairy wants firm in the going, Roderic wont stay and is over-rated, Famous Name is group 3 and 9f at best, which leaves a 2 horse race.

A lot has been made of Recital hanging in his races, put this down to fast going, anything slower and he is fine. Was touted as o'Briens number 1 3yo, and may still be. Apparently, there have been a few downpours in the last 24 hours in Dublin, so the ground should have eased sufficently for him. So the ground looks to have come right and he gets 7lb from Hype Horse.

1/3 or 16/1 is a no brainer.....Good luck all.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:38 am  

Myplacelater, hefty ew, 2-15 kEMPTON.