Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:39 am  

Bated Breath. Has plenty in his favour when a lot of the other protagonists seem to have a poor draw, or questions over the going, recent form etc.

Misty and So You Think in a double.

If AOB has yet another of his big guns undercooked for a big race this year, I will personally fly over to Ireland just to kick him square in the nuts.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:42 pm  

SMARTY SOCKS.3.15.ascot ran well on last visit to ascot when the ground was against him and better with a straight track although career high mark to overcome 13/2

ZUIDER ZEE.2.30.hay 8/1 buick always has a winner on a saturday

ST OSWALD.5.05.thirsk 13/2 o'meara yard still improving him, bit more to come

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:23 pm  

brearley84 wrote:

SMARTY SOCKS.3.15.ascot ran well on last visit to ascot when the ground was against him and better with a straight track although career high mark to overcome 13/2

ZUIDER ZEE.2.30.hay 8/1 buick always has a winner on a saturday

ST OSWALD.5.05.thirsk 13/2 o'meara yard still improving him, bit more to come

get in SMARTY SOCKS!

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 8:50 pm  

Live Wired wrote:

Already bet in the Sprint Cup;
DELEGATOR 10/1
HITCHENS 25/1

2 singles and a double today;

BRONZE CANYON 18/1.....2.15 Kempton.

Taking a bit of a flyer with this 1, but anywhere near back to his best, and he'll go close. Hopefully, his new trainer will rejuvenate him. All his best form has come on r-h courses. 81111731173. Including a couple of group 2s. The worse of those results were on his debut, in a group 1 and on slower ground than was officially given. looks to need 10f+, fast ground and a fast run race, with Harris Tweed in opposition, this should be guaranteed. Queally's only ride at Kempton before moving to Ascot.

RECITAL 16/1...6.45 Leopardstown

Up against the Hype Horse and a stupid price for a group 1 winner. Snow Fairy wants firm in the going, Roderic wont stay and is over-rated, Famous Name is group 3 and 9f at best, which leaves a 2 horse race.

A lot has been made of Recital hanging in his races, put this down to fast going, anything slower and he is fine. Was touted as o'Briens number 1 3yo, and may still be. Apparently, there have been a few downpours in the last 24 hours in Dublin, so the ground should have eased sufficently for him. So the ground looks to have come right and he gets 7lb from Hype Horse.

1/3 or 16/1 is a no brainer.....Good luck all.

Garbage, this So You Think isn't he? Four G1 runs since coming over here, won 3 and beaten a neck in the other.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:16 pm  

worthing wire wrote:

Garbage, this So You Think isn't he? Four G1 runs since coming over here, won 3 and beaten a neck in the other.

Don't try and talk reason to him mate, the longer he goes off on these rants and gets the wrong the better it is. He wrote off Snow Fairy and claimed So You Think was a stupid price, first and second they finished

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:50 am  

1st of all, well done to the winners yesterday.
The reason for the 1/3 and 16/1 comment was the variation in price. with the rainfall that fell, i presumed the ground would have been too slow for Snow Fairy, but it was'nt. Another 100 yards and the Hype Horse would have been beaten. As for Recital, bloody awful ride, horse stays 12f, drops back to 10f, and the jockey reigns him in for the 1st 4f, instead of using his stamina.

Looks like the draw had a massive impact on the Sprint Cup, but Delegator would not have won with a different draw anyway.

Still onwards and upwards and it's all about opinions, and the St Leger next week.

ps/ Can anyone give me a link to all the pattern races run at York?...tia.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:47 am  

well that was robbery, seen the slow mo and bated breath was the only winner.

left misty and piled on syt

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:00 pm  

andym1988 wrote:

well that was robbery, seen the slow mo and bated breath was the only winner.

left misty and piled on syt

Didnt see the Sprint Cup as I was playing football, but did check the prices on Betfair in running and I assumed Dream Ahead had won the race as it was trading sub 1.3 during the photo finish / stewards enquiry. Read a brief thread on Betfair complaining about the stewards decision. Anyone shed any light as to what actually happened ?

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:51 pm  

St Leger..1m 6f.

Based on the results of the past 23 years.

1/ 23/23 won or placed over 12f- Freedom, Rumh and Genius Beast fail.
2/ 22/23 made their debut at a grade 1 course.- Brown Panther, Buthelezi, Sea Moon fail.
3/ 21/23 made their debuts over 7f+
4/ 20/23 have at least been placed in a group 2.
5/ 21/23 ran over no further than 12.5f.
6/ The last 13 winners all had an OR of 111.

Making a start with number 6, the field is reduced to Blue Bunting 115, Wonder of Wonders 113 and Seville 120, with Genius Beast next best on 110.

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:21 pm  

Field is reduced straight away to 3 runners, with Wonder of Wonders likely to miss the race.

Blue Bunting- High class and already won 3 group1s. Would have been a cracking bet if she had won the English Oaks, as, out of 22 Oaks winners who went onto the Leger, 21 either won or placed in the Leger. Snow Fairy ended the run last season. BB proved the Epsom run all wrong, when winning the Irish version narrowly, then winning the Yorkshire Oaks. The quality of the latter is debateable imo.

Seville- 1 hell of a frustrating horse, but has an OR of 120 ( proberley over-rated). Certainly has the class to win a group1, has 3 2nds and a nowhere to his name in such company. hope comes for him through the stamina of the dam, who was quoted as staying on in 2 group1s over 12f and won over 13f.

Now for the worst priced favourite of the year; Sea Moon. Massive negatives include, his dam was a 6f sprinter, he has previously run in a handicap ( 3-23 leger winners did so), he did'nt make his debut at a grade 1 course and the poor record of York pattern race winners on their next run.

Since York underwent course improvements in 2008, I counted 36 pattern races. Of which, 9 of the 36 winners won next time out 25%. 3 of those winners were fillies/mares who had already proven themselves group 1 class, another 2 were Sea The Stars ( brilliant) and Twice Over ( already group 1 proven). Bigger names than Sea Moon have failed ater winning at York, Rip Van Winkle, Cape Blanco and Rewilding for a start. It would seem that winning at York, is a hindrance next time out, unless you are a filly/mare or a proven group 1 horse.

SEVILLE to win @ 10/1
BLUE BUNTING to place ( on the day)

SEA MOON is a place lay....I could make an argument for at least 5 horses to finish ahead of him, Hughes has deserted him for Census, and Stoute has a poor record in the race.