Re: Betting Chat : Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:34 pm  

1/ 15/15 had never run in the Arc before.
2/ 14/15 had previously won a group 1 race
3/ 15/15 had won at least approx 50% of their previous races.

Just by using the 3 stats above, the field is whittled down to just 6.

St Nicholas Abbey. Already on e/w at 33s- Not entirely convinced the course will suit as his best races have been run on courses with long demanding straights, though, the usual break-neck pace will be in his favour.

Treasure Beach- Only bad run was at Longchamp, though it was his 4th race in 2 months, so tiredness could be blamed for that. Won a grade 1 in America lto over an inadequate trip. Form figures on good or faster ground read 211121.

Masked Marvel- Put it this way, if Nathaniel was running, MM would not. Worst case of afterthought I've ever seen.

Reliable Man- French derby winner, but was firmly put in his place by Meandre on faster ground nto. looks to be reliant on soft ground.

So You Think- hype horse who's done nothing wrong. 3rd in Melbourne Cup would prove he stays 12f, his 2 major problems are; he has not shown instant acceleration in his races since coming to Europe, thus prone to a finisher and his best performances have come on courses with a long finishing straight- Sandown and Curragh, the short false and final straight will not play to his strengths.

Galikova- French oaks 2nd, when in season, won a gr2 then easily won the Vermeille. Being by Galileo, the faster the ground, the better.

Re: Betting Chat : Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:43 pm  

St Nicholas Abbey 33/1 e/w
Treasure Beach 33/1 e/w
Galikova 7/1 win

The Prix de la Foret looks a cracker. Big question is wether Galikova will be fully wound up, with her season long main aim just a few weeks later. Can't see Peslier throwing the kitchen sink at her, So I'll be looking elsewhere. Namely;

WORTHADD
10/1 available, but feel that better odds would be available on the PMU. Using an admittedly strenuous form line involving Canford Cliffs, there is nothing between him and Goldikova His Lochinge 2nd ( race thrown up several group 1+2 winners), would be his best of the season. He's yet to win a group 1, but has 2 placed efforts in such company, he's 1/1 over 7f and on good ground or faster, his figures read 11122.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 01, 2011 11:40 am  

JOBURG
SMARTY SOCKS
SAMITAR
PRINCIPAL ROLE
ARTIC COSMOS

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:31 am  

St Nicholas Abbey 12/1 Ante Post months ago - don't fancy it at all but least its running
Galikova 15/2 EW - 4 Places

Hiruno D'Amour 25/1 EW Backed after watching it go down to Sarafina by small margin, in what was its first run in months.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:48 am  

Could be wrong but I think Paddy has loved up here.

Longchamp 1.55 - Sofast @ 13/8 - No fav

Head of the market is the very impressive Dabirsim, Sofast finished behind that on its 2nd start but then beat American Devil and Mac Row who are the next two in the market with a hands and heels ride! No way should this be 13/8

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 02, 2011 1:30 pm  

Would be great for Goldikova to get another win in a race she has won, but also been defeated in, previously. This is her Breeders Cup prep - she wasn't kept in training with the Foret as her main target. Think Dream Ahead will give her something to think about.

Didn't back him, but what a shrewd move from Simcock - as he could've easily stuck to 6f with this horse.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 02, 2011 4:00 pm  

Strange day for me. Should have layed Goldikova, as she was going in her coat and the trainer was at pains to stress this was only a trial, but I never did. Presumed the ground was fast enough for Worthadd and Dream Ahead does not stay a yard beyond 6f Maybe Worthadd needs 1m, straight course and fast ground, possible ew for the QE2, whereas, Goldikova, I'm afraid is lay material for the Breeders Cup.

No thoughts on the Boussac, but Dabaysim is screaming Greffuhle, Jockey Club, Niel and Arc. Stamina in abundance on the dam-side, and yet has had the class to win 2 group 1s at 6+7f. Atm, the only 2yo to seriously impress me this season, hopefully, will go on to be another Sea The Stars and not an Arazi

As for the Arc, managed to salvage some losses by laying Sarafina and The Hype Horse.( both had a poo pre-race, dont like that sign of nerves imo), but still a losing race for me. The winner, though, was seriously impressive, and with a bit more leniency on my 50% stats, I could have included her But, as a race, can't work out wether the major players did not turn up, or the jockeys got their tactics wrong, or the winner is high-class ( time suggests she is).

As a final point to wind you lot up, are you still convinced that this season's crop of 3yo middle distance colts are better than their elders? Best position today was Meandre, who's previous claim to fame was beating Seville by 2l, a horse that is involved in more 3yo group 1 formlines than I can be bothered looking at

Well, rant over, time for a few pints of commiserations and self pity in the Marquis. roll on the jumps season.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 02, 2011 7:09 pm  

Wire_85 wrote:

Could be wrong but I think Paddy has loved up here.

Longchamp 1.55 - Sofast @ 13/8 - No fav

Head of the market is the very impressive Dabirsim, Sofast finished behind that on its 2nd start but then beat American Devil and Mac Row who are the next two in the market with a hands and heels ride! No way should this be 13/8

Easy money from Paddy.

Ended up being close as they gave Salure way too much rope

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Oct 04, 2011 4:11 pm  

FML, Darbism, Dream Ahead and Nahrain all won at Longhamp. Wouldn't have got anything back on the Arc race though.

Looks some top racing of both types again this weekend. Hopefully it will remain proper good ground and then we'll see some decent jumpers (mainly novices) as well as the flat brigade.

So You Think likely to be kept in training next year according to Magnier's son, whom is also the Coolmore Australia racing manager.

Re: Betting Chat : Tue Oct 04, 2011 6:07 pm  

jockeys title hotting up

fallon only 7 behind hanagan now with de sousa 11

got hanagan at 40/1 last year! got de sousa at 40/1 this year but dont think he will do it.