Re: Betting Chat : Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:24 pm  

Wire_85 wrote:

Sprint Stakes - Moonlight Cloud 9/2

Better then ever last time in Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest winning it by 4 lengths, Deacon Blues, Bated Breath and Hoof It look the main dangers but they have to give her 4lbs which gives her a massive chance even if she doesn't improve beyond her current best of 122.

She runs tomorrow only facing one of the rivals named above I backed it again at 10/3 with PP today and is now 7/2 in places.

Cheeky Champions Day acc @ 94/1

Frankel
Moonlight Cloud
Fame And Glory
So You Think

Backed The Freak to win by 2 lengths or more @ evens.

15:50 Cheltenham - Chicago Grey 13/2 EW

Back it when winning here back in March after some good runs in Novice races its on a tough mark but likes it here and is a decent EW price.

Re: Betting Chat : Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:51 pm  

Racing tomorrow at Ascot looks quite tough, and Ive never been a backer of Frankel, so will watch instead like I have done all the other times its run. Instead Ive given one race a study over the past two days and its thrown up a couple of interesting horses.

Acsot 4:45, 29 runner handicap over 7 furlongs.

Pearl Ice looks thrown in here on its handicap debut. I got word of this first time out last year, nothing special, may have just been a usual Prescott horse that was getting backed and before you know it, every man and his dog is on. It ran over 5 furlongs, finished with a flourish and just failed to get up under jockey Donohoe. Seb was put on second time out over 6 furlongs, but it was odds on so was pointless backing it, but hacked up and looked like it flourished the step up in trip. Im trying to find something out for tomorrow but doubt I will, but it just looks a natural Prescott handicap coup. Rosie Jessop takes 3lb off it, I cant see this not been in the frame tomorrow.

And...
Castlesintheair @ 40/1. Owned by Jim Mcgrath, its back on the track where it last won, albeit last July and over 10 runs ago. The horse competes in all the big handicaps, but I just feel Ascot is its preferred track. In July it was 7th of 23 in a big handicap over 7fulongs at Ascot staying on well near the finish without troubling the leaders. Hughesy was on board that day, obviously didnt use the whip enough times on that ride. I know Mcgrath wants to win another nice handicap with it, and maybe this is the one. 40/1 is about the right price and hopefully it might go well.

Re: Betting Chat : Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:21 pm  

Just done the Frankel 2 length or more bet. Really looks like printing money. Won by 4 in the Greenham, 6 in the Guineas, forget the St James' Palace - poor ride, then tonked Canford by 5 at Goodwood. Cecil reckons he's still improving and a much more mature horse. Has been on the go for six months but has had a nice rest since Goodwood.

Ferdoos could hack up tomorrow - want to see how confident Varian is first though. Had a word or two off someone from the yard throughout the season and she is thought of impeccably at home. Just depends if she's ready for it tomorrow after a long break.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:04 am  

Oddschecker claiming Will Hill went 3/1 on So You Think twice tonight, having some of that if it comes again.

Done an EW on Twice Over @ 12/1

Its a massive price for horse who seems to save its best for this time of year having won this race the past two seasons and was 2nd in 2008, no real reason there should be such a difference in price with Midday as he beat her fair and square, just seems he's being overlooked due to not being Tom Queally choice but Mongan said weeks ago he wanted to ride keep the ride an Twice Over is in the form of his life which you cannot argue as the RPR of 127 posted last time is only bettered by So You Think.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:19 am  

365 are going 1/2 on Frankel, will be having a dabble on that.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:05 am  

£5 Patent;
Banimpire
Immortal Verse
Midday.

1.50- Win Lay... Fame and Glory
2.25- Place win.. Wizz Kid
3.00- Place win.. Banimpire... Other than Dancing Rain ( course worries), has the best form in the book and a c/d winner
- win lay... Vita Nova
3.35- Place lay.. Frankel @ 1/10. Will either dot up or bomb. Visually very impressive, but time-wise, imo, based on previous winners, he does not warrant his rating.
2000 Guineas- 3rd slowest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Zafonic
St James's Palace- 4th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Shamardal
Sussex- 5th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Aljabr.

4.10- Win lay- The hype horse... needs a course with a long straight
-Place win- Midday...won or placed in all 13 group 1 races she's contested.
-Place lay- cirrus des Aigles... has bombed all 3 times hes raced outside of France and regular jockey has been replaced.
-Place lay- Twice Over... Failed 4 times at Ascot, needs a course with a long finishing straight.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:09 am  

Bloody hell. Good luck getting three horses home in front of one described by his trainer as the best he's had and who has supposedly improved since thrashing Canford Cliffs and the dependable Rio De La Plata.

Live Wired wrote:

2000 Guineas- 3rd slowest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Zafonic
St James's Palace- 4th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Shamardal
Sussex- 5th fastest in the last 10 years. 2 seconds behind Aljabr.

Look at his running style though. Nearly every time he's done the hard work mid-race, having most of the rest off the bridle leaving Queally just having to ride him out to keep him focussed. He's never had a strongly run race that has turned into a battling finish, with something else throwing the kitchen sink to make him dig deep. Only time he was tested was at Royal Ascot, when Queally kicked for home 4f out - don't care who the horses is, to go full tilt for 4f will find anything out in the last 100 yards. Zoffany and Excelebration cut his lead quite quickly, but by this point he was being driven out and treading water. Guineas was a funny race and he hardly went past the finishing post at full tilt - everyone else was in trouble 3f in.

If Queally wants to kick 2/3f out today then Frankel's initial burst of speed will put the race to bed. If he decides to go a bit sooner, as long as he doesn't give him as much to do as at the Royal meeting, then I can't see anything getting to within a couple of lengths.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 11:08 am  

Live Wired wrote:

-Place lay- Twice Over... Failed 4 times at Ascot, needs a course with a long finishing straight.

Isn't it over the straight mile today?

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 11:17 am  

Wire_85 wrote:

Isn't it over the straight mile today?

10f on the round course mate, QE2 is over the straight mile instead of the round course.

AndyM

It's a cheap lay tbh, lose a tenner or win £95., worth the risk imo, 1001 things can go wrong and jockeys cacking themselves over this whip usage.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:06 pm  

Thats the only thing bothering me ATM, this whip uncertainty.


Just had a word with a bloke I know from down south, whom has a source at the Varian yard and Ferdoos is expected to win - scoped well and has been trained to the minute for todays race.

Only thing I think could get her beat is the whip rules, as she still looked very green last time out and needed a lot of correction after wandering off a straight line more than once. Nahrain was trained for the Opera and I expect a similar outcome today in all honesty.