Re: Betting Chat : Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:33 pm  

Elusive Kate @ 4/1 in Breeders cup

she posted a run last time of 115 which is the best in the field, she on a five timer and Gosden knows just what you need for these Juvenile Turf races.

Won a Group 1 last time by 3 lengths even though she drifted across the track

Re: Betting Chat : Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:27 pm  

Not had any bets on the Breeders Cup but thought Misty For Me ran a hell of a race in defeat after missing the start. Nahrain also done connections proud, ran a proper honest race and just seemed to run out of steam. Bet she traded at daft odds when Dubawi Heights was coming off the bridle.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:12 am  

Sizing Europe @ 9/2

Not his best trip but ran well enough in this last year and has already had his first run unlike the main threats.


Done yank hotpot Union Rags @ 3/1

Also Strong Suit/So You Think EW double pays 48/1 now so abit more on that.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:22 am  

EW Patent

Meeznah - Marathon
Hoofit - Turf Sprint
Strong Suit - Turf Mile

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:23 am  

Nothing much too get excited about over here today, so it's Churchill Downs for me. Taking an absolute flyer on American racing, but a few jump out. Today's £5 patent is;

Mile- Turrallure 14/1 ... Euro horses seem to be at a disadvantage, they were'nt allowed to gallop on the course the other day. A few at the top of the market look vulnerable, notably Goldikova, hence my selection, whose train Lopresti has a 33% strike rate at the Breeders Cup. Impressive! Only runner this year

Classic- Havre de Grace 9/2.. Has already beaten the colts this year, has the top Beyer rating and beat last night's ladies classic winner.

Turf- Midday 11/2.. Could have ran in the F+M but Cecil goes for this against the colts. Looks like the ground has come right for her and is 13/14 win and place in all her group1 races. Her final race.

Already bet Byword @ 8/1 for the mile, and will bet Zoffany ew on the American pari-mutuel. Will also be place laying the Hype Horse before I go out later.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:04 pm  

Hmm he plodded home behind a Kauto Star that was a shadow of his former self in his next three races. Don't think he truly gets 3m, especially on soft ground. If Bostons Angel and Quito are ready to go, they were two of the toughest novices around last year and should make it hard. Backed Quito a few times last year and is a horse I like a lot, every inch of a Gold Cup horse.
Interesting that PF said that this is The Nightingale's 'Gold Cup'...

Goldikova is a mahoosive 5/2 with Laddies. She has lost her aura but looks to have a gilt edged chance to go out at the top here. Strong Suit will probably be dropped in at the back and Hughesie will be hoping for a traditional American slow paced start so that he doesn't have to use too much petrol early on. If he can get him into contention, he must have a big chance.

Can't make head nor tail of the Classic. It all hinges on whether SYT acts on the dirt. Uncle Mo isn't certain to stay. I'd maybe go for Havre De Grace for the win and Ruler On Ice e/w at small stakes. Havre De Grace lost nothing when finishing 2nd last time over the distance, giving the winner 2lb and going down by a nose. Ruler On Ice won the Belmont impressively earlier this year and was tanking home when 2nd last time out, when forced wide for much of the race and carrying 10lb more than the winner, who re-opposes tonight, To Honor And Serve. Has ran his race the twice in between those races and if there is to be an upset then he will certainly be staying on.

As for the turf, Sarafina has the turn of foot required if it turns into a sprint finish. Sea Moon is a very strong traveller and could throw down a challenge. Didn't lose much in defeat after a luckless Leger run, which before that some were suggesting he went for the Arc - after a poor year he could give Stoute something to smile about. Don't think the Ballydoyle pair want a sprint finish off a crawl, certainly not SNA, who ideally will want a strong pace and something to cut down close to the finish. Await The Dawn could also do with a decent gallop but shouldn't be as much of a hinderance to him as it will be to SNA. He was very ill after York and would take a leap of faith to back him, even though AOB is a master with such horses.

If I was having a bet, I'd go Goldikova, Havre De Grace, Sea Moon in a small patent.


As for the British & Irish action;

Silviniaco Conti and Pacha Du Polder look set to give Paul Nicholls a cross-the-card double.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:13 pm  

SCARABOCIO.12.15.donc 6/1
MOLOTOF.12.35.winc 10/11

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:51 pm  

andym1988 wrote:

Goldikova is a mahoosive 5/2 with Laddies. She has lost her aura but looks to have a gilt edged chance to go out at the top here. Strong Suit will probably be dropped in at the back and Hughesie will be hoping for a traditional American slow paced start so that he doesn't have to use too much petrol early on. If he can get him into contention, he must have a big chance.

Strong Suit actually wants pace.

Thats why even though its a poor draw it isn't the end for it as last years pacesetter sits in the stall next to him, its all down to Hughes to follow it.

As last night show being on the rail isn't always great.

7/1 on Strong Suit is huge and I have gone in again EW

He's 10/1 on the US Tote so might play that later.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:22 pm  

Wire_85 wrote:

Strong Suit actually wants pace.

My mistake, I worded that a bit poorly, as he got a good pace at Ascot and also Goodwood and blitzed them. Just meant I wouldn't feel it would be beneficial for Hughesie to have to do too much work/chasing early on. 7/1 is a cracking E/W bet to be fair.

Re: Betting Chat : Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:28 pm  

What a ride from Davy Russell, class act.