: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:52 am  

Carneys Pint wrote:

It's easy enough to narrow it down to a few serious contenders.

Rule out the following:

Horses who have fallen or unseated this season

Horses aged 6 or those aged 12 and over

Those who have completed in previous Nationals


Positives: Form over the National fences.

Where would the casual punter be able to get this info from ?

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:55 am  

shandy swiller wrote:

becher chase and other races at national meeting over national fences

2002 - montys pass 2nd in a race over fences then won national in 2003

2002 - amberleigh house won becher chase. won national in 2004

2004 - silver birch won becher chase. won national in 2007

probably others also

Yes, I gather all that. I just think that ruling out horses who have previously completed slightly contradicts the form over the fences bit.

Amberleigh House was placed the year before it won;
Hedgehunter fell at the last one year, won it the next and was 2nd the next;
West Tip placed three times after winning it;
Monty's Pass was placed the year after it won;
Party Politics placed subsequent to winning

I could probably go on. But won't

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:56 am  

JWP wrote:

Where would the casual punter be able to get this info from ?

Racing Post and/or Sporting Life websites would be good places to start.

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:55 pm  

When is final declaration?

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:07 pm  

Dave Lister wrote:

When is final declaration?

im guessing top 40 will now be in + 4 reserves

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:18 pm  

Dave Lister wrote:

When is final declaration?

10 a.m. Thursday.

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:39 pm  

As the ground is said to be drying out (and going against my Southern Vic fancy) ive gone in again on Parson's Legacy today. Took 33s early this morning and its now best priced 20s.

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:26 pm  

Now strongly fancy Can't Buy Time as a very decent e/w shout.

Good Weight, Age, Trainer - Just Hope McCoy doesn't ride him.

: Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:53 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

It's easy enough to narrow it down to a few serious contenders.

Rule out the following:

Horses who have fallen or unseated this season

Horses aged 6 or those aged 12 and over

Those who have completed in previous Nationals


Positives: Form over the National fences.

That's the fundamental for mine. I don't think any amount of training can prepare a horse for those fences.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:00 am  

Racecards are out, although some of these are not final deceleration. http://horses.sportinglife.com/aintree2008/racecards Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run. Big Bucks should run away with the hurdle on Thursday and i can see Lough Derg pulling out of that and is entered in 3 other races anyway. Wichita Lineman should run away with the novice chase on Wednesday and the Melling should be a competitive race, Weapon's Amnesty ran well at the festival and is entered in the Sefton Novice Hurdle. Tatenan should run in the Maghull Novice chase on Saturday and i think Celestial Halo can go 1 better in the Aintree Hurdle and then near enough anything can win the National. All in all some great racing on the way people, many horses entered in lots of races still so i wont be betting until the morning of the race. Don't forget to post your tips and good luck all.

Racecards are out, although some of these are not final deceleration. http://horses.sportinglife.com/aintree2008/racecards Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run. Big Bucks should run away with the hurdle on Thursday and i can see Lough Derg pulling out of that and is entered in 3 other races anyway. Wichita Lineman should run away with the novice chase on Wednesday and the Melling should be a competitive race, Weapon's Amnesty ran well at the festival and is entered in the Sefton Novice Hurdle. Tatenan should run in the Maghull Novice chase on Saturday and i think Celestial Halo can go 1 better in the Aintree Hurdle and then near enough anything can win the National. All in all some great racing on the way people, many horses entered in lots of races still so i wont be betting until the morning of the race. Don't forget to post your tips and good luck all.