haven't posted for a while, but here is something worth thinking over regarding the champ hurdle.
used an online stake calculator for the stakes...
paddy power's champ hurdle offer is upto £100 refund per customer
£37 on zarkandar at 9/2
£32.93 on rock on ruby at 5/1
£29.07 on grandouet at 6/1
if any of them win, it would see a profit of £103.
if fly wins, all three bets refunded.
effectively even money on three horses, with a fourth one there to return the stake if he wins. or even consider backing fly at best odds too, would merely eat a little bit out of the profit if one of the others win, but would still ensure a profit (not just stake back) if fly wins.
haven't decided my bets yet, but its certainly something i'll consider.
cheltenham bets so far
sprinter sacre - works out at 4/11 (range of prices from evens to 1/4, all NRNB concession with various firms except one which is NRFB with chandlers). the evens offered by sportingbet nrnb before the tingle creek really was brilliant.
quevega - 8/11 (two bets, evens NRFB and 1/2 NRNB)
big bucks - evens - NRFB, stake back on the day
dynaste is the short horse i want to take on atm. he has won me plenty this season, but there are a few stats he needs to overcome.
feltham winners have an awful record in the race.
he hasn't run in this calender year
he has had two seasons over hurdles
french breds have a poor record in the race.
he ran two 3m hurdle races around cheltenham and wasnt exactly staying on powerfully either time, although that is a but of a picky thing to hold against him as his stamina seemed fine at kempton on boxing day, and if a horse stays and is still finding plenty at the end of 2 and a half over hurdles then they will usually stay the three over fences without much problem.
there are some gritty irish types entered, and the good ground will see fair improvement from plenty of the home team as well. could be a trait through the novice hurdles and chases; unexpected improvement on a large scale, as a majority of the better novice races this winter have been small fields, moderate pace, heavy ground.
i know that stats aren't a biblical way, but horses such as grands crus, long run, punchestowns and time for rupert have all met at least two of those stats. i know grands crus, punchestowns and time for rupert have been disappointing in open company over fences, but going into the race they all had similar hyped up profiles to dynaste.
dynaste may just prove a cut above - stats do get blown out of the water now and again - we will have to wait and see. i just hope willie decides this is the race for boston bob, he is learning the chasing game all the time and this will be right up his street. only negative for him is his relative lack of chase experience, however, they have said from day one chasing is his game so i'm hoping his natural ability makes up for that. done nothing wrong either chasing him brindisi last year, when ruby arguably gave him plenty to do. the rsa is a brutal race, if i was david pipe i'd send dynaste for the jewson.
