Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:43 pm  

Thing is though if it goes Cheltenham and beats say a couple of 135-145 rated horses then the 6/1 will then become 9/2 or 4/1 maybe lower, duffs it then its back out to 16s maybe 20s like Menorah did before it won the Supreme thats just the risk you take.

Dunguib is a great puzzle am already on at 6/1 for Champion Hurdle after making the big mistake of expecting it to win the first at Cheltenham but I have nibbled at 22/1 E/W Champion Hurdle and 99/1 for the World Hurdle, remember a few coming on here after it came third in Supreme novices saying it did nothing in Ireland beating dogs not really true when it won the Deloitte in unreal fashion beating Fionnegas - was last seen giving Reve De Sivola a right run for its money in a Grade 1 and is rated 147 over hurdles.

You can hardly say thats nothing last I read was Fenton was giving it two runs in 2011 before Cheltenham maybe the thinking is that it was on the go too much last year after winning the bumper it then went Punchestown for another bumper and schooled over hurdles as well, then came back in August more schooling then 4 races before the Supreme, so thats 8 races from 2009 to now which is a alot for a horse that gets lit up easy and even though it was 6yo it hadn't been used to that before just maybe it was overcooked last March.

Re: Betting Chat : Sun Oct 24, 2010 11:18 pm  

Wire_85 wrote:

Thing is though if it goes Cheltenham and beats say a couple of 135-145 rated horses then the 6/1 will then become 9/2 or 4/1 maybe lower, duffs it then its back out to 16s maybe 20s like Menorah did before it won the Supreme thats just the risk you take.

It sure is and I for one hope you reap the rewards. For me, I'd just like to see some good form before commiting to getting on for Cheltenham, we're very early into the season and I'm certain by end of Nov/early December we'll have a much more competitive market and I think even with a good run at Paddy Power meeting he'll still be around 6s anyway. I like to be more cautious for my festival bets, it's easy to get caught up in early season hype and back something before letting the form develop.

Wire_85 wrote:

Dunguib is a great puzzle am already on at 6/1 for Champion Hurdle after making the big mistake of expecting it to win the first at Cheltenham but I have nibbled at 22/1 E/W Champion Hurdle and 99/1 for the World Hurdle, remember a few coming on here after it came third in Supreme novices saying it did nothing in Ireland beating dogs not really true when it won the Deloitte in unreal fashion beating Fionnegas - was last seen giving Reve De Sivola a right run for its money in a Grade 1 and is rated 147 over hurdles.

You can hardly say thats nothing last I read was Fenton was giving it two runs in 2011 before Cheltenham maybe the thinking is that it was on the go too much last year after winning the bumper it then went Punchestown for another bumper and schooled over hurdles as well, then came back in August more schooling then 4 races before the Supreme, so thats 8 races from 2009 to now which is a alot for a horse that gets lit up easy and even though it was 6yo it hadn't been used to that before just maybe it was overcooked last March.

You're preaching to the converted here mate, I'm with you all the way. I think there was a lot of eagerness to get the horse out running and a lot of hype that surrounded him, he was quite green and destroyed everything he faced in Ireland, I thought he ran an awful lot pre Cheltenham and thought he had a two races too many at least, I'm sure they'll be a lot more particular this season and fingers crossed that'll see a much more improved Dunguib and he can silence some doubters next March.

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:34 am  

Best case scenario is he goes to Cheltenham in a couple of weeks for a 2m 5f Novices I think it is (the one Tell Massini won last year) and takes on a Nicholls ex-pointer/French-bred (probably Domtaline IMO) and beats him 10+ lengths. He'll be impressive but we'll still be none the wiser as to whether he's a genuine 160+ horse which is what he'll need to be to contest the Champion Hurdle let alone win.

I think it's far from being the greatest bet of all time but would much rather take the 33/1 and 40/1 (I think) about last weeks Cheltenham winner Clerk's Choice for the Champion Hurdle.

There've been plenty of very impressive Champion Bumper winners who've started short price favs for the Supreme/2m 5f Novices and been turned over - in addition to the usual Irish hotpots, think You'llneverwalkalone, Cousin Vinny, Dunguib, Like-A-Butterfly, Cardinal Hill etc.

Good luck with the bets and he was most certainly impressive yesterday

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 am  

This is the great thing about jumps as it just builds towards Cheltenham an so much will happen along the way, I have really enjoyed the flat this year and we still have the Breeders Cup to come but can't beat jumps IMO

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:14 am  

Wire_85 wrote:

This is the great thing about jumps as it just builds towards Cheltenham an so much will happen along the way, I have really enjoyed the flat this year and we still have the Breeders Cup to come but can't beat jumps IMO

Agreed though I wish it was less Cheltenham-centric tbh. More big races at other tracks would help, particularly given that Cheltenham is farily unique.

Oh and a Grade 1 3m 4f Chase over the XC course worth £250,000 at the Festival to add to the Crystal Cup Series is required too

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:59 am  

Few in Ireland today.

Doubles, treble of first 3 and acca

Leopardstown 2.25 Dubai Prince @ 4/7

Galway 3.05 Apt Manor @ 4/6
Galway4.05 Donnas Palm @ 1/1
Galway 4.35 Berties Dream @ 11/4 - single as well

Galway 3.35 One Cool Cookie 16/1 E/W

Just missed out on 20/1 which would of been very nice, not been over hurdles for awhile but has been a very good chaser on its day running to 148 in March this year.

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:58 am  

Leicester 2:00

Silbury looks a potential improver for Roger Charlton. Three runs followed by a fair handicap run where she kept on to finish 5th pver 6f. Upped to 7f today, she looks a nice price in the first division of the nursery. Wanted to see what Charlton had to say and his website gave this..
"Silbury runs in the 2.00 pm at Leicester today and she's our only runner. She steps up in trip to 7f which should suit her as long as she settles, but the heavy ground is likely to be against her."

Now the heavy ground is his only issue but I would have thought he would have pulled her out had it been that big a concern (three non runners already in the race) especially with her been his only runner today.

Im tempted by the 8/1 this morning, but would have staked a little more had Charlton been a bit more enthusiastic.

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 11:39 am  

Done Famous Name in the 2nd to last at Leopardstown @ evens should have too much for these.

Also a little poke on John Oxx's Annacurra in the first there just noticed it had taken a few bets and bet365 had cut it from 20/1 to 14/1 so had a go @ 149/1 and 99/1 on betfair might try a little back and lay

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:27 pm  

Could've had a field day in Ireland today, some decent racing at Leopardstown and Galway. Plenty of 'good things' going in as well.

Re: Betting Chat : Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:52 pm  

Bellamy 8/1 first goal tonight or 66/1 for a hat trick!! If he plays may be worth a tickle....