Re: Cycling : Wed May 16, 2012 1:18 pm  

I'd better be careful - I don't make too many of those.

Re: Cycling : Thu May 17, 2012 8:13 pm  

He says to concentrate on the Olympics but........does this mean they can focus the team around someone who has been tipped as an outside bet for the tour? Das Panzerwagon?[/quote]

Haggis Fax wrote:

Sky are not HTC. Their train is not and will never likely be as good. Does Cav need a train to win? No........but, he won't get as many wins.

How can they improve the train? Hard to say (unless they sign Renshaw) but Cav needs a lead out man who he trusts completely.

We've seen a few times Sky men at the front looking round for Cav. Where is he? Usually fixed on Mark Renshaws wheel. This has lead to a bit more confusion at times as Renshaw is not riding for Cav anymore so Renshaw is not willing to weave through the pack as he once did with Cav fixed behind him.

Then what happens? More sprinters/teams get to the front and make it a messier effort for Cav to get through.

Cav simply has to start trusting his new team to get him into the place he needs to be or Sky splash the cash and buy Renshaw.

I agree with you that his wins seem to be where he takes it up a bit earlier than he once did. Is this because he is changing his tactics or just because circumstances are forcing him to do so i.e. he either gets stuck in a bunch or goes as soon as there is a chink of light?

Don't forget at the tour Cav will have his best mate Bernie plus probably ben swift. He's still got that top end speed that no one else can match. Also it's their first year together. You can't replicate race conditions and train your train properly until they learn that natural instinct thing what only comes from real racing. Short of a disaster or him pulling out early then I think he'll keep the jersey IMO.
The time of a team like HTC is well gone I reckon. Sponsors want to have GC winners not sprint winners it would seem otherwise HTC would've found a backer. Cav could only win so many races a year that severly restricts your other winning potential if all your cash is spent in that direction.

Haggis Fax wrote:

John_D wrote:

Boonen not off to Le Tour. Surprising

He says to concentrate on the Olympics but........does this mean they can focus the team around someone who has been tipped as an outside bet for the tour? Das Panzerwagon?

I think Boonen knows that the only way he will beat Cav at the olympics is to ensure that he forces GB to blow up chasing him up box hill. And the other teams as well. He'll look on it in the same way he does the classics it's his one and only tactic. Being knackered from le tour will only hinder that plan. And there's a good chance that Cav may be well blown by the Champs ellysees only a few days before the road race.

As for Das Panzerwagon I bloody wouldn't mind seems as though I took him at odds of 60/1 a good few months ago. He won the white jersey on a few years ago and with such a heavy TT laden tour as long as he can keep pace in the mountains he could be quite close.

Re: Cycling : Wed May 23, 2012 8:37 am  

With only 5 stages to go (and 4 crucial ones for GC) what are your predictions for the winner?

It really could be anyone from anywhere within the top 15 I would say. With one eye on the final time trial I think a good outside bet would be De Gendt. I had £2 on Hesjedal from the start but een I think he might falter in the high mountains.

[John_D]

Re: Cycling : Wed May 23, 2012 3:39 pm  

With Rodriguez winning today, he might have done enough

Re: Cycling : Wed May 23, 2012 4:05 pm  

J Rod though If I remember correctly is a bloody crap TT'er. Saying that is it another mountain TT like last year? In which case a uphill TT on normal road bike could be a bit of an evener.

I have to say this years Giro has been pretty boring upto now. I think the lack of GC class has really affected the make up of the race and subdued the mountain battles somewhat. Especially the way the breakaways have been allowed to win.

Re: Cycling : Thu May 24, 2012 11:59 am  

J Rod is a crap TT'er and whilst pretty good in the high mountains he's not exactly a mountain goat. But then again those who are mountain goats are not exactly known for their TT ability.

I do expect Pozzavivo to try something on stage 19 or 20. The way Scarponi recovered from cramp on the descent yesterday makes me see just how much he wants it. Can Hesjadal TT?

Re: Cycling : Thu May 24, 2012 12:06 pm  

This years TT is described as fast and technical. I expect De Gendt to make up a lot of time. And with Hesjadal being a Garmin rider I would expect he can TT. Maybe my few little bets might come off!

It will all become clearer after stage 19 and 20.

Re: Cycling : Tue May 29, 2012 9:08 am  

Well that was a nice little earner with bets on Hesjadal to win and De Gendt to finish in the top 3.

What have we learnt from the Giro? For me as follows:

1. Basso is a spent force. Wheras Scarponi tried to do something Basso showed no intent other than sending his team to the front to ride for him.

2. Hesjadal showed that his good placing in the Tdf 2 years ago was no fluke. Very impressed with how he stayed with good climbers in the last week of the Giro.

3. De Gendt is more than a one trick pony (that trick previously being to stay hidden for 2 weeks and then win a stage). He has changed the trick now to stay in contention before launching an attack. If he is riding the Tdf and can maintain his form then he could be an interesting proposition.

4. Cav........his Giro would have to be described as unfinished. Could so very nearly have won the red jersey but not quite to be (by 1 point!!). His crash with Ferrari would not have happened had he been in a better position. His loss to Guardini was down to his lazyness (his words). It all comes down to what his aim for the Giro was.....was it to win the red jersey or to get some climbing miles into his legs? If it was the latter then it was a triumph.

So now it's a month of the Dauphine and Tour De Suisse before the Tdf. Got to say I'm very excited about what we could potentially witness here.

Re: Cycling : Tue May 29, 2012 11:11 am  

I don't think we'll see De Gendt as a force in the TDF this year. It's very rare that riders can keep in condition for 2 grand tours. Hence I would expect him to maybe look at the vuleta latter in the year followed by the worlds (maybe) and then aim to have him as VS's team leader at next years TDF.

Interesting convo on BR about Cav following his Giro and whether we could have the legs to do a full TDF followed by what could be potentially a very tough olympic road race for him. Some are wondering if the Giro was his GT jersey aim followed by winning a few races at TDF. Then bailing out at the first rest day in order to recover in time for the olympics.

Looking forward to the Dauphine just to see if Wiggo is in the form we're all hoping for. Will he go to win it or just use it as a conditioning excercise. Be interesting to see how Cadel rides as well following his early season illness.

Oh good call on the betting front. I'm glad i never bothered as I'd have took crappy odds early on for J Rod.

[John_D]

Re: Cycling : Tue May 29, 2012 3:47 pm  

Schleck, A awarded the 2010 TdF yellow jersey