: Wed Apr 01, 2009 8:06 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.

To clear it up:

If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.

I kind of see your point here now - I'm guessing it's to do with weights subsequently allocated.
Do you reckon Hedgehunter fell on purpose in 2004?

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 8:36 pm  

He was weighed down by a hefty sum of CP money from 66's down to 25's which was IMO the main problem. He wouldn't have won if he'd stood up anyway as they made too much use of him that year, the following year however he could have gone round again

I might be to do with subsequent weight - it's just a stat that they have a poor record, tbh horses who've previously won and not won the National have a poor win record in general but Hedgehunter won the year after falling and there've been a few other good runs.

Equally there's a good few poor runs after placing, most notably Lord Atterbury who was came down at the first one year having finished third the year before.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:09 pm  

Anyone any idea rough SP for Big Bucks tomorrow? Looking on SkyBet and no prices yet,just an option for SP

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:11 pm  

cumbriansaint wrote:

Anyone any idea rough SP for Big Bucks tomorrow? Looking on SkyBet and no prices yet,just an option for SP

5/6 on PP at the moment

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:13 pm  

Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:16 pm  

cumbriansaint wrote:

Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?

Taking Big Bucks at 5/6 and Denman at 10/11 (current prices at PP)


£10 pays £35

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:18 pm  

Cheers mate. Put it on on SkyBet but had to take the SPs

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:18 pm  

cumbriansaint wrote:

Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?

£35 if you take the 10/11 Denman and that 5/6 about BB

They're top price about both of those and Big Bucks is an arb at the price so it won't be there much longer.

[Wanderer]

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 9:36 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

£35 if you take the 10/11 Denman and that 5/6 about BB

They're top price about both of those and Big Bucks is an arb at the price so it won't be there much longer.

Sorry if this comes over as pedantic, but surely Big Bucks cannot be referred to as an arb at odds of 5/6. For an arb to occur the punter must have the ability to make a profit regardless of outcome by backing two or more possibilities;

e.g. In a tennis match with only two possible outcomes, one bookmaker has player A odds on (4/6) and player B odds against (11/10) whilst another bookmaker has player A odds against (5/4) and player B odds on (4/7). By backing each player at odds against the punter is guaranteed a profit albeit a small one.

Big stakes players search for opportunities like this but they are few and far between as bookmakers view each others prices and will rarely provide punters such opportunities for too long - but they do occur from time to time.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 10:21 pm  

no horse will EVER beat my winning record in the 1990 GRAND NATIONAL