Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:24 am  

I really don't get why people are so bothered.

You'd have to have Leeds as favourites for this game for numerous reasons.

For starters our record at BV against them is truly appalling - 4 wins in 25 years or something like that.

This is also the business end of the season where clubs find a new gear for the play offs and top four placings. Leeds are old hands at this, we are virtually in uncharted territory.

Leeds derailed us more or less at this point last year. Sure we are better this year but so are they.

Lets not get carried away, from now on going down by 20 points in 20 minutes or playing as badly as we did against Hudds in the first half will see us well and truly spanked. We need to make a step up now and Saturday is the first big test. Nothing less than 100% will do, it won't guarantee a win but so long as we are competitive I think most fans will be happy. Anything less and it's last season all over again which would be a massive shame - but hugely typical of the past four or five seasons.

So as a betting man it's a Leeds win by 12+ for me - as a fan, well that's something different

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:29 pm  

Spookdownunder wrote:

As a team sitting equal third in the league and one that looks genuine semi final contenders ... super league not challenge cup... I would be looking to put Leeds away on Saturday and taking their place i a clear third in the league... that said... they and Cas are the only teams to easily get past us so far this season...

The most important match is the next one which happens to be Leeds, they're not 3rd in the table for nothing, there's no point in resting players only to lose to Salford in the cup who'll be just as hard if not harder to beat after last week game.

Why lessen our chances of consolidating our top 4 place with a win over Leeds and going above them at the expense of maybe knocking over Salford again, matter of choice I suppose a step nearer Wembley perhaps, or 2 more valuable points towards the play off's.

As regards to the odds apart from the gamblers who gives a toss whose favourite, it won't change a thing come 6pm on Saturday.

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:20 pm  

I don't like resting players or sacrificing games for some other match. You tend to lose momentum. You just have to risk the injuries. If you get a shed load like last year it's just tough luck, but you didn't die wishing. With confidence and team spirit as it is, change nothing I say

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:55 pm  

upthecats wrote:

The Cup angle is a valid one...I still think it's not much more than a 50/50 though and if anything I'd have thought we'd be slight favourites...home advantage...a stronger 17 that has just gone and turned over the 2nd place team on their own patch and on a 7 match winning run...I also think there will be added motivation amongst the group with how we performed at Headingley...

It's an interesting argument as to which is the more important game, this or Salford on Thursday...I'd go with this one...

There's a fair chance there will be quite a few 'part time' fans turn out for this...despite being not as good these days Leeds are still a major draw, and scalp...if we play like we have been and beat Leeds it could do wonders for the remaining 3 home games in the regular season...all three attractive names and all potential decent crowds if we keep the momentum up...plus we would be going to Salford off the back of 8 straight wins...

Strongest available 17 and all out for the win for me!

Some fair points but the fact is They dicked us at Headingley and in the SL era they have consistently drubbed us. I'd expect em to be favourites. That said we're only getting 4 on the handicap which isn't a great deal.

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:30 am  

Vasty, best post you have ever made, it is well reasoned and accurate , it just goes to prove that a leopard can change its spots

[Wildthing]

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:51 am  

bellycouldtackle wrote:

Vasty, best post you have ever made, it is well reasoned and accurate , it just goes to prove that a leopard can change its spots

Maybe you could try next then?

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:41 am  

PopTart wrote:

It's also to do with the bets. If someone places a lot of money on Leeds the odds will swing to show them as favourites to make sure the bookies don't lose.
If they are so low I assume we are high?

I'd also add, without it being some d**k measuring boost, that Leeds obviously have more fans so you'd imagine more people will want to bet on them so you don't want to make their odds too good.

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:23 am  

We have been the best backed in the last couple of days in this betting market.

I merely started the thread because as 1) a Wakey fan and 2) someone who's been into betting all my life it interested me the way the bookies priced up the match...

For me it really is a 50/50 call...it's pointless pointing to Leeds record over us for the last decade and beyond because purely and simply over that period of time they were a far better team than us...are they now? They finished below us last season and are only above us on points difference...

Don't fall into the trap that the bookies are always right and they always win because they don't...this type of market is where professional gamblers make money...doing it professionally is all about value...if you look at a sporting event, horse race, whatever and you think the bookie has their percentages wrong then that's where you make it pay...we may well lose this game but overall, backing instances like this will see you in front in the long run...

Using Paddy Power as the example as they were the ones who went 4/9...the game obviously has three available outcomes and their rugby league experts will decide what percentage of chance each outcome has...in reality it should be worked out to a 100% book but obviously isn't otherwise they would go bankrupt...

So their odds are...

Leeds 4/9 - 69.2%
Wakefield 13/8 - 38.1%
Draw 20/1 - 4.8%

So basically PP think there's a near 70% chance that Leeds will win the game...if like me you think it's 50/50 at worst then Leeds at 4/9 are terrible value and Wakey would definitely be worth a few quid!

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:50 am  

upthecats wrote:

We have been the best backed in the last couple of days in this betting market.

I merely started the thread because as 1) a Wakey fan and 2) someone who's been into betting all my life it interested me the way the bookies priced up the match...

For me it really is a 50/50 call...it's pointless pointing to Leeds record over us for the last decade and beyond because purely and simply over that period of time they were a far better team than us...are they now? They finished below us last season and are only above us on points difference...

Don't fall into the trap that the bookies are always right and they always win because they don't...this type of market is where professional gamblers make money...doing it professionally is all about value...if you look at a sporting event, horse race, whatever and you think the bookie has their percentages wrong then that's where you make it pay...we may well lose this game but overall, backing instances like this will see you in front in the long run...

Using Paddy Power as the example as they were the ones who went 4/9...the game obviously has three available outcomes and their rugby league experts will decide what percentage of chance each outcome has...in reality it should be worked out to a 100% book but obviously isn't otherwise they would go bankrupt...

So their odds are...

Leeds 4/9 - 69.2%
Wakefield 13/8 - 38.1%
Draw 20/1 - 4.8%

So basically PP think there's a near 70% chance that Leeds will win the game...if like me you think it's 50/50 at worst then Leeds at 4/9 are terrible value and Wakey would definitely be worth a few quid!

I've been into the horses for about 10yrs and have always found that getting the results are based on a few criteria.
1. If possible always pick the horse with a "pretty" name.
2. Pick the best "turned out" horse.
3. Pick one with smutty/childish innuendo names.
Failing that pick a "nice" number.
Hope that helps in future betting upthecats.

Re: Leeds 4/9.... : Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:07 am  

Haha like it! It's true...I've followed racing for 25 years...last two times I've took my two girls to Ponte ages (16&5) they've both done better than me!

Just to add strength to my argument about it being a 50/50 call though I've just had a quick scan through what look the 4 active super league clubs prediction comps...so far I've seen 59 predictions...29 for us and 30 for Leeds...might be the odd few who predict in more than one but interesting all the same...

There's obviously bias towards your own team as on the Leeds page there's 19 going Leeds and 4 for us...likewise on ours 10 go for us and only 1 Leeds...on Huddersfield page though we've 5 for us and 4 for Leeds and on Warrington page it's 10 for us and 6 Leeds...