Slugger McBatt wrote:
If they did a couple of Covid-swerves re Catalans, Hull KR and Saints, they could go after us and Huddersfield and get 3 wins out of 19. If we played our remaining games and lost them all, we'd have 5 wins out of 22. That would still put us above them,
Just swerve Catalans and Saints and beat us, Huddersfield and Hull KR, it would be 4 wins out of 20. 20%. That would still be good enough for us.
They only way they can stay up is by winning 4 more games but play one less game, because of points difference.
The season could yet have a few more twists and turns as far as relegation goes...
Leigh's remaining scheduled fixtures are:
St Helens A
Catalans A
Hull KR (Magic)
Trinity H
Huddersfield A
They then have 3 outstanding postponed games:
Hull FC A
Warrington H
Castleford H
Wakefield's fixtures are:
Hull KR A
Leeds H
Huddersfield (Magic)
Leigh A
Hull FC H
plus the postponed game
Salford H
We're currently 5/19 = 26.32%
worst case scenario we lose all the remaining scheduled fixtures....
5/24 = 20.83%
Leigh are currently 1/17 =5.88%
If Leigh only play their current scheduled fixtures they'll need to win at least 4 of them to give 5/22 = 22.73%
Salford should also not be counted out of the mix as yet (currently 5/17 =29.41%)
Salford scheduled fixtures:
Catalans H
Hull FC H
Castleford (Magic)
Warrington A
St Helens H
plus postponed games:
Hull FC A
Hull KR H
Wakefield H
If they lose all their scheduled fixtures (a tough run-in) They'd be 5/22 = 22.73% like Leigh if they won 4/5, but likely better points difference ratio having conceded 200 points fewer than Leigh.
Then you're into the realms of jiggery-pokery.
The most likely outcome is that nothing changes and Leigh are relegated, beating St Helens or Catalans away looks unlikely, but if they could win one and postpone the other, they could stay up on 5/21 = 23.81%
What could be interesting is if Wakefield or Salford need one more win to ensure safety. Could they re-arrange their fixture for during the play-offs? If it's meaningless to one team but SL safety to the other, it could be an fascinating game. One fielding their first team and the other letting all the youngsters have a go. I'm sure Derek would be happy with that.