Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:05 am  

MatthewTrin wrote: I'm sorry this assessment is just wrong. Lockdowns in reality have little to no impact on halting the spread of this virus. If you stop relying on assumptions and look at the actual data it supports my view. We know the number of days between infection to fatality is at least 23 days. So if you go back to the start, we entered into lockdown on 23 March 2020,this would mean the peak of the curve should be on or after 13 April 2020, but the actual daily death data (not the daily reported deaths!) shows it was on 8th April 2020. Deaths by 13th April had fallen from 900 a day on the 8th April to 690 a day and this downward trend continued daily even after non essential shops were allowed to reopen on 15 June. This decline cannot therefore be credited to any lockdowns. If you still don't believe I'm correct, check out the same curve found in Sweden. The graph shows it followed the exact course of the UK; raised exponentially and fell without a lockdown. Do you have a link to the source of the data you quoted? This? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths If nothing had been done at all prior to the 23rd (actually came in to force on the 26th) March then you could have a point, but actions had been taken before then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... m_(January–June_2020) 16 March The UK death toll from the pandemic reaches 55, with the number of cases of the illness passing 1,500.[65] Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises everyone in the UK against "non-essential" travel and contact with others, to curb coronavirus, as well as to work from home if possible and avoid visiting social venues such as pubs, clubs or theatres. Pregnant women, people over the age of 70 and those with certain health conditions are urged to consider the advice "particularly important", and will be asked to self-isolate within days.[65] The Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport states "it is advised that large gatherings should not take place".[66] The government issues a call for businesses to support the supply of ventilators and ventilator components;[67] the NHS has access to 8,175 ventilators but it is thought that up to 30,000 may be needed.[68] The BBC delays its planned changes to TV licences for the over-75s from June to August because of the pandemic.[69] Theatres in London, as well as elsewhere around the UK, close following Boris Johnson's advice that people should avoid such venues. Guess what? 23 days from the 16th March is 8th April. It became clear that not enough people were following government advice, so a more strict lockdown was needed. I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really. Media reports with vested interest or actual scientific studies from across the globe. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26906 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-4?op=1 https://www.vox.com/2020/6/9/21284087/c ... ses-deaths https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -graphics/ https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020071 ... e-evidence https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... covid.html Meanwhile, from other sources... along your line of reasoning https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/ https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/2 ... lockdowns/ The problem with these is the insistence that it wasn't lockdown that caused the decline because the numbers started to drop after 15 days, which is too early. A bit of a coincidence that this happened eh? but nothing to do with the lockdown. Have a look at Brazil to see what happens without lockdown. Don't get me started with 'look at Sweden'. They did have some restrictions, but not a lockdown. Sweden population = 10.3 million - Covid deaths = 5930 (576 deaths per million population) Norway, Finland and Denmark combined population =16.7 million - Total Covid deaths = 1328 (80 deaths per million population) Source: Johns Hopkins University / BBC Depends what price you put on lives I suppose. I'm sure not locking down protected the economy in Sweden though... or not. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-8?op=1

MatthewTrin wrote: I'm sorry this assessment is just wrong. Lockdowns in reality have little to no impact on halting the spread of this virus. If you stop relying on assumptions and look at the actual data it supports my view. We know the number of days between infection to fatality is at least 23 days. So if you go back to the start, we entered into lockdown on 23 March 2020,this would mean the peak of the curve should be on or after 13 April 2020, but the actual daily death data (not the daily reported deaths!) shows it was on 8th April 2020. Deaths by 13th April had fallen from 900 a day on the 8th April to 690 a day and this downward trend continued daily even after non essential shops were allowed to reopen on 15 June. This decline cannot therefore be credited to any lockdowns. If you still don't believe I'm correct, check out the same curve found in Sweden. The graph shows it followed the exact course of the UK; raised exponentially and fell without a lockdown. Do you have a link to the source of the data you quoted? This? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths If nothing had been done at all prior to the 23rd (actually came in to force on the 26th) March then you could have a point, but actions had been taken before then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... m_(January–June_2020) 16 March The UK death toll from the pandemic reaches 55, with the number of cases of the illness passing 1,500.[65] Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises everyone in the UK against "non-essential" travel and contact with others, to curb coronavirus, as well as to work from home if possible and avoid visiting social venues such as pubs, clubs or theatres. Pregnant women, people over the age of 70 and those with certain health conditions are urged to consider the advice "particularly important", and will be asked to self-isolate within days.[65] The Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport states "it is advised that large gatherings should not take place".[66] The government issues a call for businesses to support the supply of ventilators and ventilator components;[67] the NHS has access to 8,175 ventilators but it is thought that up to 30,000 may be needed.[68] The BBC delays its planned changes to TV licences for the over-75s from June to August because of the pandemic.[69] Theatres in London, as well as elsewhere around the UK, close following Boris Johnson's advice that people should avoid such venues. Guess what? 23 days from the 16th March is 8th April. It became clear that not enough people were following government advice, so a more strict lockdown was needed. I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really. Media reports with vested interest or actual scientific studies from across the globe. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26906 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-4?op=1 https://www.vox.com/2020/6/9/21284087/c ... ses-deaths https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -graphics/ https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020071 ... e-evidence https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... covid.html Meanwhile, from other sources... along your line of reasoning https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/ https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/2 ... lockdowns/ The problem with these is the insistence that it wasn't lockdown that caused the decline because the numbers started to drop after 15 days, which is too early. A bit of a coincidence that this happened eh? but nothing to do with the lockdown. Have a look at Brazil to see what happens without lockdown. Don't get me started with 'look at Sweden'. They did have some restrictions, but not a lockdown. Sweden population = 10.3 million - Covid deaths = 5930 (576 deaths per million population) Norway, Finland and Denmark combined population =16.7 million - Total Covid deaths = 1328 (80 deaths per million population) Source: Johns Hopkins University / BBC Depends what price you put on lives I suppose. I'm sure not locking down protected the economy in Sweden though... or not. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-8?op=1

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:13 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

And yet governments across the planet continue to use "lockdown" as a measure to curb the spread.
Are they all wrong but, your analysis is correct ?

The UK Government was pretty convinced that it was indeed the lockdown that had help prevent the numbers growing and deaths rising beyond what was, at the time, hospital capacity.

Why, why do you have so much blind faith in governments. I don't see what any government in my lifetime has ever done to warrent your complete subservience.
Just don't get it.
Why not share with us the governments, past and present, you most admire, maybe I'm missing something.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:34 am  

coco the fullback wrote: Do you have a link to the source of the data you quoted? This? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths If nothing had been done at all prior to the 23rd (actually came in to force on the 26th) March then you could have a point, but actions had been taken before then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... m_(January–June_2020) Guess what? 23 days from the 16th March is 8th April. It became clear that not enough people were following government advice, so a more strict lockdown was needed. I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really. Media reports with vested interest or actual scientific studies from across the globe. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26906 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-4?op=1 https://www.vox.com/2020/6/9/21284087/c ... ses-deaths https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -graphics/ https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020071 ... e-evidence https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... covid.html Meanwhile, from other sources... along your line of reasoning https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/ https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/2 ... lockdowns/ The problem with these is the insistence that it wasn't lockdown that caused the decline because the numbers started to drop after 15 days, which is too early. A bit of a coincidence that this happened eh? but nothing to do with the lockdown. Have a look at Brazil to see what happens without lockdown. Don't get me started with 'look at Sweden'. They did have some restrictions, but not a lockdown. Sweden population = 10.3 million - Covid deaths = 5930 (576 deaths per million population) Norway, Finland and Denmark combined population =16.7 million - Total Covid deaths = 1328 (80 deaths per million population) Source: Johns Hopkins University / BBC Depends what price you put on lives I suppose. I'm sure not locking down protected the economy in Sweden though... or not. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-8?op=1 Your quote: I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really While not wishing to come between you and MatthewTrin, statistics not my strong point. I'm surprised you rely so much on the Bill Gates funded John Hopkins University and BBC. Yes I trust you have full confidence in the guy but come on, he has such a vested interest in all of this I just would have thought you would stay clear for this argument bearing in mind your statement above. As for Wikipedia? Well, I'll leave it there.

coco the fullback wrote: Do you have a link to the source of the data you quoted? This? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths If nothing had been done at all prior to the 23rd (actually came in to force on the 26th) March then you could have a point, but actions had been taken before then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... m_(January–June_2020) Guess what? 23 days from the 16th March is 8th April. It became clear that not enough people were following government advice, so a more strict lockdown was needed. I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really. Media reports with vested interest or actual scientific studies from across the globe. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26906 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-4?op=1 https://www.vox.com/2020/6/9/21284087/c ... ses-deaths https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -graphics/ https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020071 ... e-evidence https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... covid.html Meanwhile, from other sources... along your line of reasoning https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/ https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/2 ... lockdowns/ The problem with these is the insistence that it wasn't lockdown that caused the decline because the numbers started to drop after 15 days, which is too early. A bit of a coincidence that this happened eh? but nothing to do with the lockdown. Have a look at Brazil to see what happens without lockdown. Don't get me started with 'look at Sweden'. They did have some restrictions, but not a lockdown. Sweden population = 10.3 million - Covid deaths = 5930 (576 deaths per million population) Norway, Finland and Denmark combined population =16.7 million - Total Covid deaths = 1328 (80 deaths per million population) Source: Johns Hopkins University / BBC Depends what price you put on lives I suppose. I'm sure not locking down protected the economy in Sweden though... or not. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 020-8?op=1 Your quote: I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really While not wishing to come between you and MatthewTrin, statistics not my strong point. I'm surprised you rely so much on the Bill Gates funded John Hopkins University and BBC. Yes I trust you have full confidence in the guy but come on, he has such a vested interest in all of this I just would have thought you would stay clear for this argument bearing in mind your statement above. As for Wikipedia? Well, I'll leave it there.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:50 am  

Miro wrote:

Your quote:
I guess it depends on where you trust for you information really

While not wishing to come between you and MatthewTrin, statistics not my strong point. I'm surprised you rely so much on the Bill Gates funded John Hopkins University and BBC.
Yes I trust you have full confidence in the guy but come on, he has such a vested interest in all of this I just would have thought you would stay clear for this argument bearing in mind your statement above.

As for Wikipedia? Well, I'll leave it there.

Wikipedia was only for the UK covid timeline, I'm pretty sure that's accurate enough.

So, we're back to Bill Gates conspiracies. Can you state your main claim and best evidence?

Sorry if you feel you've done it before, but I'm still unsure, so make it clear for my little monkey brain.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:17 am  

Miro wrote:

Why, why do you have so much blind faith in governments. I don't see what any government in my lifetime has ever done to warrent your complete subservience.
Just don't get it.
Why not share with us the governments, past and present, you most admire, maybe I'm missing something.

I think you may be beginning to struggle with your message ?

You mistake observation for subservience's.

I mentioned New Zealand as a success story in controlling the virus, which even you will struggle to argue with and pointed out that broadly speaking, they, along with most other countries have followed a similar path in trying to control it's spread, with restrictions on travel, social distancing and better hygiene practices, oh yeah and the wearing of face coverings.
They have been very successful, as have some other nations and are now getting back to "normal".

As I said, observation not subservience

They haven't been taken over by aliens or indeed, some higher authority following a recent conference on "world re set", they have got on in protecting their people from a VIRUS.

Despite their being some very poor governments and some that are downright corrupt across the globe, the vast majority are following a broadly similar path to NZ, with differing degrees of success.

To me it seems highly likely that most will need a vaccine to truly get on top of the situation but, your inference that EVERY government is awful and they are taking actions for reasons other than controlling the virus, comes straight from science fiction.
You've been putting great effort into trying to prove some dodgy theory of a new world order and it seems that this just isn't the case and is just pure conjecture by a group of people that take comfort in such things.

I've roamed the planet long enough to know that there will always be someone in power.
At least in a democracy, we have the chance, every few years, to make a change and quite honestly, this is as good as it gets. Again, not subservience, just reality.

History tells us that "we" will overcome the virus and the human species, despite creating many of it's own problems, are adept at solving these problems and history would suggest that we will indeed overcome. However, please carry on with your search for the new world order. Personally, I dont think it's coming, yet.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:44 am  

coco the fullback wrote:

Wikipedia was only for the UK covid timeline, I'm pretty sure that's accurate enough.

So, we're back to Bill Gates conspiracies. Can you state your main claim and best evidence?

Sorry if you feel you've done it before, but I'm still unsure, so make it clear for my little monkey brain.

Happy to.

Bill and Melinda Gates co-sponsored Event 201 The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation granted at least $60-million to the Johns Hopkins University’s

We see from this that the economic and political effects of a pandemic were being carefully studied at the Rockefeller Foundation at least as early as 2010. More recently, a pandemic simulation took place at Event 201, which was hosted by the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. This occurred six weeks before the first reported outbreak of the coronavirus. Almost to a tee, it followed the initial phase of the LOCK STEP scenario.

You may think this was a mere coincidence....I don't.

Lets just say John Hopkins University are hardly likely to bite the hand that feeds it just as Trin wouldn't have bitten the hand of Eric France plus maybe, just maybe, they have a vested interest when collating data? And we know how much bogus data there is around, don't we?

Also.

Over 600,000 Americans sign a petition this year for the White House to investigate Bill Gates for “medical malpractice” Five times the required amount necessary.
Now correct me if I'm out of order here but would you buy a second hand car from a guy with a say 60 or 600 or 6000, 60,000 ? or even 600,000 petition to investigate him?
My guess is you would not, just out of caution mind.
Lets just say I'm cautious, very, very cautious.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:57 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I think you may be beginning to struggle with your message ?

You mistake observation for subservience's.

I mentioned New Zealand as a success story in controlling the virus, which even you will struggle to argue with and pointed out that broadly speaking, they, along with most other countries have followed a similar path in trying to control it's spread, with restrictions on travel, social distancing and better hygiene practices, oh yeah and the wearing of face coverings.
They have been very successful, as have some other nations and are now getting back to "normal".

As I said, observation not subservience

They haven't been taken over by aliens or indeed, some higher authority following a recent conference on "world re set", they have got on in protecting their people from a VIRUS.

Despite their being some very poor governments and some that are downright corrupt across the globe, the vast majority are following a broadly similar path to NZ, with differing degrees of success.

To me it seems highly likely that most will need a vaccine to truly get on top of the situation but, your inference that EVERY government is awful and they are taking actions for reasons other than controlling the virus, comes straight from science fiction.
You've been putting great effort into trying to prove some dodgy theory of a new world order and it seems that this just isn't the case and is just pure conjecture by a group of people that take comfort in such things.

I've roamed the planet long enough to know that there will always be someone in power.
At least in a democracy, we have the chance, every few years, to make a change and quite honestly, this is as good as it gets. Again, not subservience, just reality.

History tells us that "we" will overcome the virus and the human species, despite creating many of it's own problems, are adept at solving these problems and history would suggest that we will indeed overcome. However, please carry on with your search for the new world order. Personally, I dont think it's coming, yet.

It's you that keeps referring to governments as an authority we should trust. I just want to know, from you, to share with us the governments, past and present, you most admire and more to the point trust.. Maybe I'm missing something, maybe I should trust governments more. Help me here, change my awfully skeptical viewpoint.

So far New Zealand

My "dodgy theory" of a New World Order, mine is it? How about we call it the great re-set.
Well, you had better tell these folks then;
Event 201, which was hosted by the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Check out the GREAT RE-SET.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:05 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I think you may be beginning to struggle with your message ?

You mistake observation for subservience's.

I mentioned New Zealand as a success story in controlling the virus, which even you will struggle to argue with and pointed out that broadly speaking, they, along with most other countries have followed a similar path in trying to control it's spread, with restrictions on travel, social distancing and better hygiene practices, oh yeah and the wearing of face coverings.
They have been very successful, as have some other nations and are now getting back to "normal".

As I said, observation not subservience

They haven't been taken over by aliens or indeed, some higher authority following a recent conference on "world re set", they have got on in protecting their people from a VIRUS.

Despite their being some very poor governments and some that are downright corrupt across the globe, the vast majority are following a broadly similar path to NZ, with differing degrees of success.

To me it seems highly likely that most will need a vaccine to truly get on top of the situation but, your inference that EVERY government is awful and they are taking actions for reasons other than controlling the virus, comes straight from science fiction.
You've been putting great effort into trying to prove some dodgy theory of a new world order and it seems that this just isn't the case and is just pure conjecture by a group of people that take comfort in such things.

I've roamed the planet long enough to know that there will always be someone in power.
At least in a democracy, we have the chance, every few years, to make a change and quite honestly, this is as good as it gets. Again, not subservience, just reality.

History tells us that "we" will overcome the virus and the human species, despite creating many of it's own problems, are adept at solving these problems and history would suggest that we will indeed overcome. However, please carry on with your search for the new world order. Personally, I dont think it's coming, yet.

Sorry to interrupt, but the population of New Zealand, is a mere 5 million, compared to U.K. 65 million. I’m sure even you would agree that it’s easier to control 5 million than 65 million.

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm  

Miro wrote:

So, New Zealand then.

My "theory" of a New World Order, mine is it? How about we call it the great re-set.
Well, you had better tell these folks then;
Event 201, which was hosted by the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Check out the GREAT RE-SET.

Already looked, thanks

As posted, many pages ago, it makes good sense to work on the response to such a scenario.
After all there have been numerous smaller outbreaks of highly infectious diseases and may would express surprise as to why these didn't develop into something more significant - probably because there had been similar planning for such events in the past ??

Where I worked prior to owning my existing business, we were signed up to all sorts of contingency planning for "extreme" events, with local authorities, suppliers etc, it would be a little odd if these things weren't considered.

I must say, when I put my name to being the first call, I never once considered that there was going to be a global "re-set", it just seemed like good practice.

As for Bill Gates, I still have him down as one of the "good guys", you seem to think he's dangerous. Free choice, I suppose.

Perhaps you can share with us your view on how the world should respond to the pandemic or, perhaps you think it's all "fake news".
However, just to help work out which direction you are coming from, could you please share

Re: What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat : Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:48 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Already looked, thanks

As posted, many pages ago, it makes good sense to work on the response to such a scenario.
After all there have been numerous smaller outbreaks of highly infectious diseases and may would express surprise as to why these didn't develop into something more significant - probably because there had been similar planning for such events in the past ??

Where I worked prior to owning my existing business, we were signed up to all sorts of contingency planning for "extreme" events, with local authorities, suppliers etc, it would be a little odd if these things weren't considered.

I must say, when I put my name to being the first call, I never once considered that there was going to be a global "re-set", it just seemed like good practice.

As for Bill Gates, I still have him down as one of the "good guys", you seem to think he's dangerous. Free choice, I suppose.

Perhaps you can share with us your view on how the world should respond to the pandemic or, perhaps you think it's all "fake news".
However, just to help work out which direction you are coming from, could you please share

Yes, of course there should be contingency plans but the depth of planing for this one goes way beyond a mere contingency plan. I do not believe it was and do you believe it was. Time will tell.

However way you look at it they are talking of a Economic re-set or a New World Order. The term “new world order” was, I believe, coined by the elites. So don't blame me for a dodgy conspiracy.

Are we having a re-set or not? You now say it's a "good practice" yet have been calling me a "dodgy conspiracy theorist" Mek thi mind up lad.
You mention democracy, the re-set, is it democracy? Will we, the British, have a vote on it? Because it seems far more reaching than Brexit, or will the "good guy" Bill Gates, an American, have his own way? Because, as I see it, you seem quite happy to suspend democracy for this re-set or even refuse to question the re-set, preffering to argue the opposite with us. That's after denying it's existence for so long.
But worse, you really think we, the people will benefit? No chance.

So....apart from New Zealand, with the population of Batley (joke). Name some governments past and present you trust, simple enough question.

As for Bill Gates, May I repeat what I related to coco:

Over 600,000 Americans sign a petition this year for the White House to investigate Bill Gates for “medical malpractice” Five times the required amount necessary.
Now correct me if I'm out of order here but would you buy a second hand car from a guy with a say 60 or 600 or 6000, 60,000 ? or even 600,000 petition to investigate him?
My guess is you would not, just out of caution mind.
Lets just say I'm cautious, very, very cautious

You find him a “good guy” over half a million Americans and I disagree.
I know who's side I prefer to err on.

As for how the world should respond to a pandemic. I have set this out many times, herd immunity is one, you know, the one we relied on for millions of years.

By the way, you never did get back to us regarding the devastation caused by the sanctions imposed upon us. I ask again, what's your view re suicides, cancer, unemployment, losing homes due to unable to pay mortgages, rents etc. And these problems will reverberate with us for years and years to come.