Update Sunday 2nd September:Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 24..............Round 25.............Round 26...........Final Points & Rank York 42.................+750 (2).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A).............Whitehaven (H)........48 (1)
Bradford 40...........+758 (1)........W Wales (A)...........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)................46 (2)
Dons 32.................+381 (4).......Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).........Workington (H)........38 (3)
Workington 32 ......+324 (5).......Newcastle (A).........London (H)...........
Dons (A)..................36 (4)
Oldham 30.............+541 (3)......
York (A)...................
Bradford (H)........London (A)..............32 (6)
Hunslet 30..............+221 (6).....
Whitehaven (A)........Newcastle (H)......Coventry (A)............34 (5)
Whitehaven 28.......+151 (7)......Hunslet (H)..............Coventry (A).........York ((A).................32 (7)
We’ve now moved up to third in the table. The good news is that our fate, with regards to finishing third (and getting a home tie in the play-offs), is in our own hands. We just need to win all three remaining games.
As before, in the chart above, the games highlighted in blue are the games where I’ve got the team in the left column to lose the game.
As long as we don’t stumble against Keighley or N Wales, the key game is the home match against Workington. It certainly looks as though the winners of that game will finish third.
Oldham: Unless Oldham turn over York or Bradford, they’re not going to catch us, but they do have a better points difference should they draw level on points with us.
Hunslet: If Hunslet beat Whitehaven next weekend it would increase their possible finishing points total to 36; we would need to lose to Workington to give them a chance of catching us but even then it’s unlikely as we have a much better points difference.
Workington: If Workington lose to Newcastle next weekend, we could even lose the home game against Workington and finish above them. Come on Newcastle!
Whitehaven:Ttheir race looks to be run. They’d need to beat York in their last game to have any chance at all of making the top six.
As things stand the top team (York) is promoted automatically, 2 plays 5, and 3 plays 4. Unless York drop points against Oldham, Hemel, or Whitehaven, they’re home and dry.
Play-off semi finals: If we beat Workington in the semi-final (or whoever finishes fourth), we would then either be away to Bradford in the final, or at home to the team that beat Bradford. We can’t play Bradford at home as that’s not a possible combination of fixtures.
Three teams promoted: Should the RFL bring in the proposed new rules to promote three teams, York and Bradford would go up, with us (presuming we finish third) at home to team 6 in the semi-final. That would be Oldham based on my present forecasts. We’d then be at home again in the final to the winners of the 4 v 5 game (probably Workington v Hunslet). A play-off final at home to either Workington or Hunslet seems more appealing than an away trip to Bradford!
Of course, we need to make sure we don’t slip up at Keighley next weekend or else all I’ll be doing a serious revamp of calculations next weekend!
