Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:38 am  

I think Carl had a sense of realism that getting promoted is not going to be easy. The duffing up at Hunslet has probably contributed to a dampened sense of expectation.

With one from three of Dons, Hunslet and Oldham likely to go up, it's odds against that'll it'll be us. That doesn't mean we won't go up but we've got more chance of not going up than going up.

Someone would have to be an extreme optimist to think we've got a better than 50% chance of going up considering what we know about Hunslet and Oldham.

Carl's confidence that we would win the league has taken a knock and the fact we can't say 'we're clearly the second best team in the league' is now a reality.

Throw in the mix that we've got three tricky games left: Workington (A), N Wales (A) and Dewsbury (H), we're going to have to be on our game to finish second.

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:53 am  

Midlands recent games:

7th May: Midlands 38, London 20 (+18)
21st May: Midlands 14, N Wales 42 (-28)
28th May: Midlands 16, Oldham 50 (-34)
4th June: Midlands 26, Dons 54 (-28)
18th June: N Wales 62, Midlands 24 (-38)
25th June: Workington 60, Midlands 10 (-50)
2nd July: Midlands 23, Dewsbury 28 (-5)
9th July: Midlands 22, Hunslet 54 (-32)
16th July: Cornwall 28, Midlands 8 (-20)

Considering we won by 28 at their place, the bookies have probably added four or six points on for home advantage today. The outliers seem to be Midlands 50 point defeat at Workington and their 5 point defeat to Dewsbury.

We seemed to conceded a few soft tries when we played Midlands away. A 40+ point win today ought to be on the cards although if it's tanking down and the ball becomes a bar of soap, 40 could be a challenge. The BBC forecast says there's a 76% chance of rain at 3pm.

[Wanderer]

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 11:14 am  

Double Movement wrote:

Considering we won by 28 at their place, the bookies have probably added four or six points on for home advantage today.

If home advantage is worth 6 points, that should create a 12 point turnaround i.e. the Dons were technically 34 points better in the away game plus 6 points today for home advantage = 40 points. I accept it's somewhat hypothetical.

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 12:00 pm  

Wanderer wrote:

If home advantage is worth 6 points, that should create a 12 point turnaround i.e. the Dons were technically 34 points better in the away game plus 6 points today for home advantage = 40 points. I accept it's somewhat hypothetical.

Yes, I see what you mean. I'd just taken the 34 points at face value. Good point.

I think the weather could be worth a couple of tries today. At 1pm it's overcast but I think there's a better chance of it staying dry than the BBC have suggested...

Famous last words, I'll probably get drenched when walking from the car to the stadium!

[Wanderer]

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 12:01 pm  

Rochdale Hornets v London Skolars postponed due to torrential rain.

[Wanderer]

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 12:10 pm  

Sport certainly being hit today ... race meetings cancelled at Redcar & the Curragh and looking increasingly likely to be no play in the Ashes Cricket.

[Wanderer]

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 12:23 pm  

Double Movement wrote:

I think the weather could be worth a couple of tries today. At 1pm it's overcast but I think there's a better chance of it staying dry than the BBC have suggested...

Famous last words, I'll probably get drenched when walking from the car to the stadium!

Good luck with the weather. I don't think today's result is in doubt, just the margin of victory.

[Wanderer]

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 1:11 pm  

Is Tom Halliday injured?

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 1:18 pm  

Wanderer wrote:

Is Tom Halliday injured?

We will find out in a couple on months

Re: Dons v Midlands Sunday 23rd July 2023 3pm : Sun Jul 23, 2023 1:19 pm  

Double Movement wrote:

I think Carl had a sense of realism that getting promoted is not going to be easy. The duffing up at Hunslet has probably contributed to a dampened sense of expectation.

With one from three of Dons, Hunslet and Oldham likely to go up, it's odds against that'll it'll be us. That doesn't mean we won't go up but we've got more chance of not going up than going up.

Someone would have to be an extreme optimist to think we've got a better than 50% chance of going up considering what we know about Hunslet and Oldham.

Carl's confidence that we would win the league has taken a knock and the fact we can't say 'we're clearly the second best team in the league' is now a reality.

Throw in the mix that we've got three tricky games left: Workington (A), N Wales (A) and Dewsbury (H), we're going to have to be on our game to finish second.

He will posting on here next