Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:56 am  

Double Movement wrote:

No worries... always pleased to help where I can.

I'd not seen it until you mentioned it. Thanks.

Thanks for the RH link DM.

Why is it that coaches feel the need to remind us reasons for some of the shortcomings of their team ?

RH said :

“They are a very clinical team and are full-time and have a bigger budget than we have and you could see that.”

Everyone knows the different budget makes a difference. Just about every coach interviewed at Toulouse since they came back to the C1 & C uses the budget excuse and the 'full-time' excuse. Why repeat the bleedin' obvious each time ?
If for example, the curent Dons squad trained full time would they be challenging Bradford at the top ? Answer 'no' because they don't have the same quality players. How for example can Fax compete at the top of the C against bigger budgets and full time squads ? Because they are coached better and the squad has been better recruited to name but two reasons.
fact is the current Dons squad doesn't look anywhere near good enough to compete at even this level so the reasons for this need to be addressed. Maybe RH is the right man but surely you can't polish a turd ?

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:06 pm  

I don't suppose it matters greatly but it is incorrect to state that the Bulls are full time. Some of the players are full time, several are part time. The owner describes it as a hybrid model. I'm sure it causes a number of problems, not least being the availability of players for training sessions. I would imagine that we have a decent budget for League 1.

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:53 pm  

How it stands on Sunday night 1st July:

1 Bradford 15 14 0 1 705 169 536 28
2 York 15 13 0 2 655 192 463 26
3 Hunslet 15 11 0 4 445 308 137 22
4 Oldham 15 10 0 5 496 182 314 20
5 Worky 15 10 0 5 497 283 214 20
6 Dons 15 9 0 6 507 327 180 18
7 Whitehaven 15 9 0 6 468 303 165 18
8 Keighley 15 8 0 7 568 377 191 16
9 Newcastle 15 8 0 7 466 314 152 16

Hunslet won 19-18 with a disputed drop goal at North Wales. Workington sprung something of a surprise winning 16-14 at Oldham. Keighley lost at Whitehaven. York beat Newcastle.

With Oldham losing, it's tightened things up a bit. It really does look like a dog fight to finish in the top five.

Next weekend's games:

Bradford v Newcastle, London v Coventry, Hemel v Keighley, N Wales v Whitehaven, Oldham v West Wales, Workington v Hunslet, York v Dons.

Whitehaven might have a game on their hands at N Wales. Keighley should win. Either Worky or Hunslet will drop points. We've got a toughie at York. Newcastle are unlikely to improve on their present 16 points.

Fixtures for the weekend after:

London v York, Hunslet v Bradford, Dons v West Wales, Keighley v Oldham, Newcastle v N Wales, Workington v Whitehaven, Coventry v Hemel.

Hunslet may have two losses to their name after the next two games. That'll bring them back into the pack. Workington or Whitehaven will drop points. Keighley v Oldham is a big game.

If we could get a win at York, it would really do our chances a great deal of good but I suspect it may be a step too far. Our key matches remain the forthcoming games away at Hunslet and at home to Oldham. I'm sure there'll be plenty of twists and turns along the way as most teams, apart from Bradford and York, in the top nine are capable of losing to each other if slightly off their game.

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:00 pm  

Good summing up DM. Crusaders fans have posted that the Hunslet drop goal went 2ft underneath the crossbar. On this tread is the video of the 'drop goal' WTF its a shocker http://www.totalrl.com/forums/index.php ... NewComment

Good summing up DM. Crusaders fans have posted that the Hunslet drop goal went 2ft underneath the crossbar. On this tread is the video of the 'drop goal' WTF its a shocker http://www.totalrl.com/forums/index.php ... NewComment

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:29 pm  

You can see the Hunslet drop goal here: https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/hunslet-coach-shrugs-off-drop-goal-controversy/

You can see the Hunslet drop goal here: https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/hunslet-coach-shrugs-off-drop-goal-controversy/

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:44 am  

How it stands on Sunday night 8th July:

1 Bradford 16 15 0 1 729 173 556 30
2 York 16 14 0 2 686 208 478 28
3 Oldham 16 11 0 5 598 188 410 22
4 Worky 16 11 0 5 525 301 224 22
5 Hunslet 16 11 0 5 463 336 127 22
6 Haven 16 10 0 6 490 317 173 20
7 Keighley 16 9 0 7 600 393 207 18
8 Dons 16 9 0 7 523 358 165 18
9 Newcastle 16 8 0 8 470 338 132 16

The Dons lost at York as I expected they probably would. The other results of interest were that Bradford only beat Newcastle by 24-4, so I don't think Newcastle can be completely be written off as top five contenders. Hunslet lost 28-18 at Workington which helped to further condense the placings as four points cover third to eighth.

With several influential players leaving Keighley, they only managed to beat Hemel by 32-16. I'm writing off Keighley's chances of a top five finish. Assuming Bradford and York are guaranteed a top five finish, that leaves three places available from Oldham, Workington, Hunslet, Whitehaven, Dons, and Newcastle.

On the positive side for the Dons, with 10 games left to play, we have not got to play either Bradford or York again. Looking at the fixtures, Hunslet, Whitehaven, Workington, and Oldham have all got to play both. Newcastle have got to play neither. Six of those fixtures occur from 19th August through to the end of the season. Only Hunslet at Bradford and Bradford at Whitehaven take place between 15th July and 5th August. Most of the 'big games' are all stored up for later.

At the beginning of this thread, I suggested that nothing much would change for the Dons between then and now. Nothing much will change next weekend either. The first of several critical games are Hunslet away and Oldham at home in the following two weeks. If we win both of those games, I would suggest we'll have more chance of finishing in the top five than not finishing in the top five, bearing in mind most of our competitors will drop points against York and Bradford. If we lose both games, we'll really be up against it. If we win one and lose one, we're still in with a chance but there will be little scope to drop points in any of the other games.

Next weekend's games:

Dons v W Wales; London v York; Hunslet v Bradford; Workington v Whitehaven; Newcastle v N Wales; Coventry v Hemel; Keighley v Oldham

Bradford should be too good for Hunslet. I doubt Oldham will drop points at Keighley. Something must give in the Worky v Whitehaven game.

The signing of Matty Beharrell has certainly added something to our team. Although we lost at York, we proved that we can compete with them. We're likely to have to beat them (away) if we're going to be promoted. Whilst this is a tall order, we can still do it.

Here's my assessment of our promotion chances:

I rate our chances of a top five finish at around even money. I think the table is slightly skewed against us at the moment as we've played more 'tougher' games than the rest. We seem to have come out of the other side of our crisis of confidence and some positives will be taken by the players from the York match.

If we finish 4th or 5th, we'll be away in the play-off first round, perhaps at Oldham or one of the Cumbrian teams. We'd not be favourites to win. I'd price that up at 5/4 against. If we won that and faced York away in the play-off final, again we'd be underdogs. I'd price that up at 6/4 against.

If my assessments are right, it means we have a 50% chance of reaching the play-offs and and our odds to get promoted are 10.25 to 1; that's around a 9% chance of going up.

Should we manage to finish third and get a home tie in the play-off semi-final, we'd be 4/5 to win that match and then 6/4 in an away game at York, reducing our promotion odds to 8/1, or around an 11% chance.

Of course, much can happen between now and then. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Whitehaven's financial crisis could deepen. Hopefully, it won't as no one likes to see teams struggle to survive.

Our stresses start in two weeks' time, until then, we can rest more easily. I'm away on holiday from Monday 16th July so I'll miss the Hunslet game. That's not very good timing, is it?!

Two edits: As Moonshine said, my holiday is in July and not August, and the Cumbrain teams has now been amended to Cumbrian! Sorry about that!

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:23 am  

I have missed a few games recently being abroad and such ... we lost every one ... so good timing.

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:24 am  

[quote I'm away on holiday from Monday 16th August so I'll miss the Hunslet game. That's not very good timing, is it?! [/quote]

Happy hols DM but I think you mean July Good assessment as always, it will all come out in the wash I suppose.

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:26 am  

Stand-Offish wrote:

I have missed a few games recently being abroad and such ... we lost every one ... so good timing.

I've signed the petition to close the border.

Re: Current position / fixtures / play off chances : Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:33 am  

Moonshine wrote:

Happy hols DM but I think you mean July Good assessment as always, it will all come out in the wash I suppose.

Thanks for that. I was needing a cool drink and a rest by the time I got to the last couple of paragraphs. Hence the cock-ups!