This is where my thinking is at. Given the hopes I had for this season that really stinks...
Yup.
We are only one win from 5th, but it also means Salford and Wigan not getting the wins either, and I think Wigan will improve. The fifth place club, Cas, has a 50% win ratio, so realistically we need to win 6 out of the remaining eleven, and those have to be against Cas and at least one of the Wigan games. It's not going to happen, so we can say goodbye to the play-offs.
The best we can hope for is to win the Huddersfield, Hull KR and London games, and win at least two of the Cas and Wigan games, and hope for results to swing our way. But we need to focus on the Huddersfield, Rovers and London games. That should be enough. Unfortunately.
We are only one win from 5th, but it also means Salford and Wigan not getting the wins either, and I think Wigan will improve. The fifth place club, Cas, has a 50% win ratio, so realistically we need to win 6 out of the remaining eleven, and those have to be against Cas and at least one of the Wigan games. It's not going to happen, so we can say goodbye to the play-offs.
The best we can hope for is to win the Huddersfield, Hull KR and London games, and win at least two of the Cas and Wigan games, and hope for results to swing our way. But we need to focus on the Huddersfield, Rovers and London games. That should be enough. Unfortunately.
I could of course be wrong but I think any hope of a play off place is gone. Wigan are ugly enough to grind out enough to sneak in to 5th spot, I mean that in compliment rather than having a dig. Maybe they won't win it but they'll be sure to take out Saints or Wire on the way. I'm worried about every fixture we have left this year. We need what we can get from our best players back on the field and match fit as soon as possible. No point taking any more calculated risks at 85-90% match fit and trying to target games.
I could of course be wrong but I think any hope of a play off place is gone. Wigan are ugly enough to grind out enough to sneak in to 5th spot, I mean that in compliment rather than having a dig. Maybe they won't win it but they'll be sure to take out Saints or Wire on the way. I'm worried about every fixture we have left this year. We need what we can get from our best players back on the field and match fit as soon as possible. No point taking any more calculated risks at 85-90% match fit and trying to target games.
I think you're right.
The maths of the situation means that to stay safe we lose the top 5th hope. For instance, Leeds have to play Catalan twice, plus Cas, Huddersfield and Salford. For us to have a chance of the play-offs, we'd be counting on the teams below us to win games like that, which we don't want either. The more we stay safe, the more the play-offs slip away.
I know we're on the same points as Wigan and Salford, but we aren't playing nearly as well.
The upside, of course, is that the more our play-off hopes disappear, the more Leeds are in the mire. Every cloud and all that ....
I might be a minority and I know we're in a bit of a hole at the moment but I'm still hopeful we can make the 5. I don't care which team you are with the amount of injuries and individuals playing who clearly aren't 100% its going to take affect - Look at Hull last year.
Remember we're only 2 point off 5th, with Fifita, Tupou, Ashurst (main strike players) coming back shortly I'd like to think we're going to turn a corner with 11 games still to play. I think we've underestimated how much Tom and Bill are missed coming away from our line, as Chester says its 300m per game.
Our defence really needs some work but its the way we're turning the ball over and gifting teams decent field position that's most frustrating.