[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:08 pm  

Cronus wrote:

The threat of no-deal and damage to Ireland and the EU economy is the only reason the EU have agreed an extension.

It's a reason but not the only reason. The madder sections of the ERG aren't going to vote for May's deal, if no deal, which they prefer, is the immediate default. Giving the UK a (tiny) bit of time to come up with a plan B, might give the ERG pause. It feels unlikely to me, and its a double edged sword, in that it eases the pressure on the Remainers and Softer Brexiters - However, May has gone all in on delivering a Tory-DUP version of Brexit, and that is her deal's only, seemingly slim, chance IMO.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:20 pm  

Downing Street is reportedly drawing up plans to give MPs a vote on seven alternative options to Theresa May's deal next week that could lead to a soft Brexit.

A senior minister has apparently leaked that MPs would get to choose between revoking Article 50, a second referendum, the Prime Minister's deal, her deal with a customs union, the deal with a customs union and single market, a standard free-trade agreement, or a no-deal Brexit.

It was also said MV3 will only be put forward if there is a realistic chance of winning, which almost certainly means it won't be brought forward at all now.

Why this wasn’t done 6/12 months ago beggars belief. The PM has an awful lot to answer for.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:00 pm  

Strinket wrote:

Why this wasn’t done 6/12 months ago beggars belief.

There was always a tension between her need to hold her party together and to deliver Brexit. The only way she could see of doing that was to manage the country to the point of crisis, and then hope that at the last minute either her own MPs would step back from the precipice or Labour would fall on its sword and save the country at its own expense. Even now, with the benefit of hindsight, it'd be difficult to say it wasn't/isn't her best shot.

The question now is, when and if that is seen to have finally and definitively failed, can she bring herself to do anything else? The failed Tory vote of no-confidence, and having very little left to lose could give her some freedom. I think the prospect of giving an inch to Labour would make her gag, and concessions to Holyrood would probably cost more Tory support than it'd gain SNP votes. Can she even bring herself to try something different? Will she even be relevant a week from now?

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:02 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

There was always a tension between her need to hold her party together and to deliver Brexit. The only way she could see of doing that was to manage the country to the point of crisis, and then hope that at the last minute either her own MPs would step back from the precipice or Labour would fall on its sword and save the country at its own expense. Even now, with the benefit of hindsight, it'd be difficult to say it wasn't/isn't her best shot.

The question now is, when and if that is seen to have finally and definitively failed, can she bring herself to do anything else? The failed Tory vote of no-confidence, and having very little left to lose could give her some freedom. I think the prospect of giving an inch to Labour would make her gag, and concessions to Holyrood would probably cost more Tory support than it'd gain SNP votes. Can she even bring herself to try something different? Will she even be relevant a week from now?

Its a very good post - most people with an ounce of decency would have gone by now - her position has been so undermind its an embarrassment to her. How can she face the EU with any kind of gravitas when they no she is not respected by her party and the opposition. Her power base has simply eroded before her.


The best thing now is she goes and the Tories call a GE once a leader has been elected. There are 4/5 very good candidates and this needs addressing urgently.

You cannot have a government that doesn't govern - its a basic premise of democracy.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:06 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Its a very good post - most people with an ounce of decency would have gone by now - her position has been so undermind its an embarrassment to her. How can she face the EU with any kind of gravitas when they no she is not respected by her party and the opposition. Her power base has simply eroded before her.


The best thing now is she goes and the Tories call a GE once a leader has been elected. There are 4/5 very good candidates and this needs addressing urgently.

You cannot have a government that doesn't govern - its a basic premise of democracy.

Those "4/5 very good candidates" wont want the top job until the first phase of Brexit is done as it could lead to a very short stint at the helm.
Just as soon as the deal is done it will be pistols at dawn.
It will be interesting to see just who is in the mix though.
Boris would be like a daft version of Trump, Gove is an utter slime ball, Hunt, no thanks, Rudd - maybe, Rees Mogg and maybe Raab ??
Have I missed anyone

Would you want someone from the Tory right or a candidate that was bothered about the country as a whole ?

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:48 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Those "4/5 very good candidates" wont want the top job until the first phase of Brexit is done as it could lead to a very short stint at the helm.
Just as soon as the deal is done it will be pistols at dawn.
It will be interesting to see just who is in the mix though.
Boris would be like a daft version of Trump, Gove is an utter slime ball, Hunt, no thanks, Rudd - maybe, Rees Mogg and maybe Raab ??
Have I missed anyone

Would you want someone from the Tory right or a candidate that was bothered about the country as a whole ?

Rabb is a good call - he looks well he speaks well. Dan Poulter, Nicky Morgan

We need a candidate who will support growth but is mindfullof a more even wealth distribution.

Business needs to be encouraged to grow and prosper otherwise everything stagnates. Lower CT helps one of the reasons for leaving the EU - sadly that will now not happen.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:58 am  

Damn and blast, was looking forward to a nice day working on my veg plot and walking the dog. However have just received an emergency call from my pals on the People’s vote march in London. Apparently they are struggling to obtain enough hummus, falafel and Vegan food to last the day. Don’t worry lads and lassies I am on my way. Up the workers.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:00 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote:

Damn and blast, was looking forward to a nice day working on my veg plot and walking the dog. However have just received an emergency call from my pals on the People’s vote march in London. Apparently they are struggling to obtain enough hummus, falafel and Vegan food to last the day. Don’t worry lads and lassies I am on my way. Up the workers.

Seriously ??
On the other hand you could join Farage, with his hit squad and razor wire, ready to eliminate all those who dont fit into his white supremacist mould. No foreign accents or spongers, unless they are saving someone's life

He's probably rallying his troops to have another pop at The Germans

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:39 pm  

Nigel Farage, not bothered about him either way. I get just as much entertainment from him as the other factions in this never ending comic drama. Looking forward to Lord Heseltine adressing the marchers, that’s providing he can find his way from his country estate. See Blair’s war monger Campbell is on the March. Wonder if he remembers a miiion people marching to prevent the Iraq war, possibly not.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:05 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Those "4/5 very good candidates" wont want the top job until the first phase of Brexit is done as it could lead to a very short stint at the helm.
Just as soon as the deal is done it will be pistols at dawn.
It will be interesting to see just who is in the mix though.
Boris would be like a daft version of Trump, Gove is an utter slime ball, Hunt, no thanks, Rudd - maybe, Rees Mogg and maybe Raab ??
Have I missed anyone

Would you want someone from the Tory right or a candidate that was bothered about the country as a whole ?

According to odds checker, it is:
Johnson, 5-1
Gove, 6-1
Raab, 9-1
Hunt, 9-1
Javid, 11-1

And the long list of the rest at 25-1 or longer.

Johnson is a scary joke of an option, and is the dog chasing a car. Labour would be pretty much obliged to replace Corbyn with Batman. More seriously, Johnson flouncing out of cabinet and a likely mini-rush to the independent group, means I think he faces quite a headwind. Bookies might not be daft, but many punters are and indirectly they set the odds.

Gove is slippery when dry and combines Tyrion’s looks with Cersei’s cunning. I’d give him half a chance, because he’s stayed in cabinet, but he lacks a bit of natural gravitas.

Raab is an extreme free-market, small state Conservative, and typical of the breed thinks he’s cleverer than he is. However, that doesn’t disbar him. He’d be a popular choice with brexiteers and isn’t an overblown caricature, who’d trigger a exodus of moderates. Could happen.

Hunt. It was bad when Cameron couldn’t remember which football team he pretended to support, but forgetting which country your wife is from is a special kind of useless. I’d give him a very good chance with the MPs.

Javid, more competent than Hunt, but also Muslim and brown which might be a hard sell to some sections of the grassroots. However, that’d really wee on a lot of race-card playing liberals’ chips, with the benefit that he’s no more progressive than the rest.