Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:17 pm  

headhunter wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/05/eu-migrants-uk-gains-20bn-ucl-study

That piece perfectly illustrates the two points I was trying to make. Firstly, these studies are infamous for the costs they leave out, which is why they usually don't gain much traction beyond their PR value. In the "real world" there are many more costs and benefits than taxes and welfare benefits. Secondly, it's not an argument for uncontrolled economic migration, it's an argument for controlled economic migration because this being an economic activity we're looking to maximise economic benefit. I'm all in favour of the ones who give us net benefits (all costs in), I just don't believe that uncontrolled immigration maximises economic benefits to UK.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:43 pm  

Kelvin's Ferret wrote: That piece perfectly illustrates the two points I was trying to make. Firstly, these studies are infamous for the costs they leave out, which is why they usually don't gain much traction beyond their PR value. In the "real world" there are many more costs and benefits than taxes and welfare benefits. Secondly, it's not an argument for uncontrolled economic migration, it's an argument for controlled economic migration because this being an economic activity we're looking to maximise economic benefit. I'm all in favour of the ones who give us net benefits (all costs in), I just don't believe that uncontrolled immigration maximises economic benefits to UK. What about this one? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 40170.html What other 'costs' do you think should have been factored in? Other than "the cost of eroding British culture" (which is an argument I have actually heard used quite sincerely by some of the more fervent supporters of the Leave campaign).

Kelvin's Ferret wrote: That piece perfectly illustrates the two points I was trying to make. Firstly, these studies are infamous for the costs they leave out, which is why they usually don't gain much traction beyond their PR value. In the "real world" there are many more costs and benefits than taxes and welfare benefits. Secondly, it's not an argument for uncontrolled economic migration, it's an argument for controlled economic migration because this being an economic activity we're looking to maximise economic benefit. I'm all in favour of the ones who give us net benefits (all costs in), I just don't believe that uncontrolled immigration maximises economic benefits to UK. What about this one? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 40170.html What other 'costs' do you think should have been factored in? Other than "the cost of eroding British culture" (which is an argument I have actually heard used quite sincerely by some of the more fervent supporters of the Leave campaign).

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:20 pm  

headhunter wrote: What about this one? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 40170.html What other 'costs' do you think should have been factored in? Other than "the cost of eroding British culture" (which is an argument I have actually heard used quite sincerely by some of the more fervent supporters of the Leave campaign). As I said before this is very misleading, e en if the figures were to be accurate. Most of those migrants from gave been young and recent. As they have kids they will use services more and I would posit that in a high percentage of cases (ie were they are in relatively lower paid jobs) they will be net beneficiaries of the state.

headhunter wrote: What about this one? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 40170.html What other 'costs' do you think should have been factored in? Other than "the cost of eroding British culture" (which is an argument I have actually heard used quite sincerely by some of the more fervent supporters of the Leave campaign). As I said before this is very misleading, e en if the figures were to be accurate. Most of those migrants from gave been young and recent. As they have kids they will use services more and I would posit that in a high percentage of cases (ie were they are in relatively lower paid jobs) they will be net beneficiaries of the state.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:51 pm  

Dally wrote:

As I said before this is very misleading, e en if the figures were to be accurate. Most of those migrants from gave been young and recent. As they have kids they will use services more and I would posit that in a high percentage of cases (ie were they are in relatively lower paid jobs) they will be net beneficiaries of the state.

The figures state that they contribute more per head than the native British population. So maybe the solution is to kick out the Brits and keep the immigrants.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:01 pm  

headhunter wrote:

The figures state that they contribute more per head than the native British population. So maybe the solution is to kick out the Brits and keep the immigrants.

Where would we go ? , all their Doctors and Nurses are over here , maybe they should all stay at home and help improve their own countries ?

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:42 am  

"In the 3 months to February 2015, the trade in goods deficit between the UK and countries within the EU reached a record high of £21.1 billion, since comparable records began in 1998. The widening of £1.5 billion mainly reflects a 5.6% fall in exports (particularly exports of oil)" http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationala ... 2015-04-09 Trade defecit globally http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/ you can do any individual country. certainly without a shadow of a doubt our trade gap is widening within the EU so IF we do break away it's in the EUs best interests not to make an enemy/put petty tariffs on goods as it's more damaging to them. We would also be free to have trade agreements with some of the commonwealth countries that we are restricted to currently. As for immigration, the UN actually have a dictat to force mass migration to the West. Immigration currently is out of control, enclaves are being formed and are no go areas even for the police in some instances. increasing broken communities and people that do not want to integrate into British society is only going to make matters worse & have such wide ranging negative effects societally and financially, most don't have even the slightest idea the impact it'll have.

"In the 3 months to February 2015, the trade in goods deficit between the UK and countries within the EU reached a record high of £21.1 billion, since comparable records began in 1998. The widening of £1.5 billion mainly reflects a 5.6% fall in exports (particularly exports of oil)" http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationala ... 2015-04-09 Trade defecit globally http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/ you can do any individual country. certainly without a shadow of a doubt our trade gap is widening within the EU so IF we do break away it's in the EUs best interests not to make an enemy/put petty tariffs on goods as it's more damaging to them. We would also be free to have trade agreements with some of the commonwealth countries that we are restricted to currently. As for immigration, the UN actually have a dictat to force mass migration to the West. Immigration currently is out of control, enclaves are being formed and are no go areas even for the police in some instances. increasing broken communities and people that do not want to integrate into British society is only going to make matters worse & have such wide ranging negative effects societally and financially, most don't have even the slightest idea the impact it'll have.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:00 am  

headhunter wrote:

But surely this referendum has shown that we are more than capable of leaving at any time? As a nation we are protected from 'ever closer union' and again, the EU is not our central government. It's a political union. There is not any type of realistic situation where some sort of centralized body would be able to impose themselves over the UK or any other European nation, people in France and Germany wouldn't take it any more than we would. There isn't some malevolent force at work here despite the narrative that the EU is some dark, shadowy empire trying to slyly establish world domination. They have some legislative power in that they set regulations for minimum standards of trading and to ensure fair competition within the single market. Some of these regulations and the method in which they are formulated needs to be reformed, for sure. But the only way we would ever be subject to any type of European dictatorship would be if someone formed an army, took over and invaded the country, and if that was the case then EU membership would be the least of our problems.

Apologies HH (from the VT)

This referendum is the first time i've felt in a long time that the government have actually kept a promise that is so ridiculously big that i thought it would have been consigned to the dustbin the moment they got into power, you say it shows we are capable of leaving at anytime, but (except in the cases of a European War) would we ever be trusted to have such an important vote ever again.
Government is designed to look after the best interests of the economy, i'd love to say of the people but they usually couldn't give a monkeys about us. Just having this option has seemingly wiped value off shares as the uncertainty has spooked investors.
Having the referendum has created uncertainty and that seems to be something governments look to avoid at all costs if they can, i doubt in my lifetime this 'option' will ever be on the cards again.

The centralised body create laws, more worringly large parts of that centralised body are unelected and therefore unremoveable, what's to say they can't be swayed by big business and lobbying groups like the sham banana republic that is the USA. Only with the added option of zero pressure of giving a fk what the people think as their jobs are set in stone regardless, they don't have to worry about re-election and just crack on.

I guess my biggest fear is i'm a cynic, i don't trust politicians, the examples of deceit are too wide spread and far too common for my liking so i like the fact they have to be at least seen to be representing us and the fear of them being removed is something i need to feel i have.

I'm not a batshit crazy fully commited little englander BREXITer, i'd prefer to be in Europe but not in this system, i think this system is corrupt or at least extremely easy to corrupt. The examples of wastage, and unnecessary bureacracy are something that grinds with me.

We are the 5th biggest players in the world, the 3rd biggest player in the union and ideally i would prefer to be IN, in a completely root and branch reforming of the the whole system.

But my options are IN or OUT, and based on such simplicity i can only see being out as a safer option.
I'm not interested if my house value goes down, my wages go down, i have less to go on holiday with, finance is a small sacrifice, a far smaller sacrifice than those who have lost their lives from the English Civil war, to the Peterloo Massacre to the Pankhurst Womans Sufferagette movement and all those that fought wars to retain that right.

I want to be part of a democracy, one that is open and accountable, yes the UK isn't perfect either but i'm open to mass debate on reform of this institution also.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:42 am  

Just having a shower then taking my pitbull as protection to the polling station with me in case theres any duskies loitering menacingly on any street corners.
I mean, just look what happened to that young lady in Batley................

I shall be voting 'Remain' seeing as I have a social conscience.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:46 am  

Wire Yed wrote:

Apologies HH (from the VT)

This referendum is the first time i've felt in a long time that the government have actually kept a promise that is so ridiculously big that i thought it would have been consigned to the dustbin the moment they got into power, you say it shows we are capable of leaving at anytime, but (except in the cases of a European War) would we ever be trusted to have such an important vote ever again.
Government is designed to look after the best interests of the economy, i'd love to say of the people but they usually couldn't give a monkeys about us. Just having this option has seemingly wiped value off shares as the uncertainty has spooked investors.
Having the referendum has created uncertainty and that seems to be something governments look to avoid at all costs if they can, i doubt in my lifetime this 'option' will ever be on the cards again.

The centralised body create laws, more worringly large parts of that centralised body are unelected and therefore unremoveable, what's to say they can't be swayed by big business and lobbying groups like the sham banana republic that is the USA. Only with the added option of zero pressure of giving a fk what the people think as their jobs are set in stone regardless, they don't have to worry about re-election and just crack on.

I guess my biggest fear is i'm a cynic, i don't trust politicians, the examples of deceit are too wide spread and far too common for my liking so i like the fact they have to be at least seen to be representing us and the fear of them being removed is something i need to feel i have.

I'm not a batshit crazy fully commited little englander BREXITer, i'd prefer to be in Europe but not in this system, i think this system is corrupt or at least extremely easy to corrupt. The examples of wastage, and unnecessary bureacracy are something that grinds with me.

We are the 5th biggest players in the world, the 3rd biggest player in the union and ideally i would prefer to be IN, in a completely root and branch reforming of the the whole system.

But my options are IN or OUT, and based on such simplicity i can only see being out as a safer option.
I'm not interested if my house value goes down, my wages go down, i have less to go on holiday with, finance is a small sacrifice, a far smaller sacrifice than those who have lost their lives from the English Civil war, to the Peterloo Massacre to the Pankhurst Womans Sufferagette movement and all those that fought wars to retain that right.

I want to be part of a democracy, one that is open and accountable, yes the UK isn't perfect either but i'm open to mass debate on reform of this institution also.

Fair enough, I know someone who is voting leave for similar reasons to that. My issue (as with his argument) is that it's not a pragmatic approach, the points you've raised are all valid but in black and white terms you're voting for something that will almost certainly have overall negative consequences for the country. I may not always get along with my family but that doesn't mean I'm about to disown them and go and sleep on the street, no matter how much you dislike the status quo it doesn't seem sensible to vote against it if the alternative is a worse option. And more than that, you're effectively giving a mandate to the idiots behind the leave campaign and everything that it has come to represent. Which to me is far worse than a layer of bureaucracy which, apart from being morally undesirable, doesn't really cause too many tangible problems if any.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:27 am  

Is it just me or does it seem that those voting remain cannot help themselves in insulting those with a different opinion ?