[DaveO]

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:32 pm  

Kosh wrote: The Germans are not ultimately behind the raid on deposits below 100k Euros. Which is the point I am contending. And you are wrong. Read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853 Specifically: UPDATE 14:20: A well-placed official rings to tell me why investors should not be panicking that the punishment of Cypriot depositors is a precedent, or that lenders to Spanish and Italian banks will be spanked as well before too long. He says the structure of the Cypriot bailout has been determined by German politics. (Aren't all eurozone bailouts fixed in that way?) Here is the logic behind imposing a hefty levy on Cyprus deposits, according to this official: 1) Regulators and politicians are convinced that a vast amount of cash in Cypriot banks belongs to Russian money launderers. 2) Few German politicians of any persuasion would have voted for a Cyprus rescue that simultaneously rescued these launderers. 3) So the only way to get the bailout through the Bundestag is for the launderers to be taxed to the tune of almost 10% of their allegedly ill-gotten cash. And if innocent savers are hurt too, that is the way this particular "Keks" will crumble. So now do you accept not only did the Cypriot government have to contribute 6bn Euors the Germans are behind the fact it had to be done via a raid on deposits? Really? Blimey - I never would have guessed. They are not, however, identical. It would seem they are wouldn't it? He's Dutch. And the Eurogroup are not Germany. It includes Germany and the German parliament would have to back the deal and the only way that was happening was with a raid on deposits. They are the ones who couldn't sell it to their electorate without a deposit raid. The CEO of the German stock exchange made the same point on Newsnight. Paxman actually asked him was he worried if Germany was seen as acting as a bully in all this. Paxman, the CEO and the Cypriot economist on the show were not under any illusions as to who was the driving force behind the need for a deposit raid and it's Germany because they want to give Russian depositors there a haircut. The ECB and IMF are not democratic institutions, so criticising them for being undemocratic is a tad redundant. They will be operating under rules and guidelines created by democratic institutions though. IMO they are a better target for ire. I never said they were. The point I was making was a government was being told what to do by an undemocratic body. Savers in other countries will be feeling a lot less secure if Cyprus ever get around to actually implementing this levy. At that point I expect runs on banks in a number of EU states. The whole thing is a mess. I agree. Despite assurances that "this is different" the troika have shown they will do basically what they want so why are they to be trusted? When people go on about the perils undemocratic European integration this gives them plenty of ammunition.

Kosh wrote: The Germans are not ultimately behind the raid on deposits below 100k Euros. Which is the point I am contending. And you are wrong. Read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853 Specifically: UPDATE 14:20: A well-placed official rings to tell me why investors should not be panicking that the punishment of Cypriot depositors is a precedent, or that lenders to Spanish and Italian banks will be spanked as well before too long. He says the structure of the Cypriot bailout has been determined by German politics. (Aren't all eurozone bailouts fixed in that way?) Here is the logic behind imposing a hefty levy on Cyprus deposits, according to this official: 1) Regulators and politicians are convinced that a vast amount of cash in Cypriot banks belongs to Russian money launderers. 2) Few German politicians of any persuasion would have voted for a Cyprus rescue that simultaneously rescued these launderers. 3) So the only way to get the bailout through the Bundestag is for the launderers to be taxed to the tune of almost 10% of their allegedly ill-gotten cash. And if innocent savers are hurt too, that is the way this particular "Keks" will crumble. So now do you accept not only did the Cypriot government have to contribute 6bn Euors the Germans are behind the fact it had to be done via a raid on deposits? Really? Blimey - I never would have guessed. They are not, however, identical. It would seem they are wouldn't it? He's Dutch. And the Eurogroup are not Germany. It includes Germany and the German parliament would have to back the deal and the only way that was happening was with a raid on deposits. They are the ones who couldn't sell it to their electorate without a deposit raid. The CEO of the German stock exchange made the same point on Newsnight. Paxman actually asked him was he worried if Germany was seen as acting as a bully in all this. Paxman, the CEO and the Cypriot economist on the show were not under any illusions as to who was the driving force behind the need for a deposit raid and it's Germany because they want to give Russian depositors there a haircut. The ECB and IMF are not democratic institutions, so criticising them for being undemocratic is a tad redundant. They will be operating under rules and guidelines created by democratic institutions though. IMO they are a better target for ire. I never said they were. The point I was making was a government was being told what to do by an undemocratic body. Savers in other countries will be feeling a lot less secure if Cyprus ever get around to actually implementing this levy. At that point I expect runs on banks in a number of EU states. The whole thing is a mess. I agree. Despite assurances that "this is different" the troika have shown they will do basically what they want so why are they to be trusted? When people go on about the perils undemocratic European integration this gives them plenty of ammunition.

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:19 pm  

DaveO wrote:

And you are wrong ...

That's an anonymous quote, there. Always dodgy.

And indeed, even on the basis of assuming that quote to be correct, it does not say what you want it to say.

It says: "He says the structure of the Cypriot bailout has been determined by German politics." This is not one and the same with 'the German government demanded this particular plan'.

It could entirely reasonably mean that what you have already acknowledged (that there's an election in Germany this year etc) has been influential in this particular plan being hatched.

Don't get me wrong – I'm no fan of the pastor's daughter and her political friends, but I do get a sense (perhaps wrongly) that you are quite happy to pursue a certain line on precisely the basis of the Germanophobia that was mentioned in the article I linked to this morning.

Because the idea that this is somehow the sole responsibility of Germany is basically nonsense and, as that article suggests, is massively influenced by that 'og God, the Krauts are involved again – it's the Nazis back' kind of attitude.

Your response to the issue of the man you quoted being Dutch and the Eurogroup not being just Germany is revealing, because exactly the same thing that you claim for Germany in that situation can be said of every other member of that group. Germany couldn't carry that group on its own, even it was the one screaming: 'let's hit the small savers of Cyprus!'

[Kosh]

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:59 pm  

DaveO wrote: And you are wrong. Read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853 Specifically: UPDATE 14:20: A well-placed official rings to tell me why investors should not be panicking that the punishment of Cypriot depositors is a precedent, or that lenders to Spanish and Italian banks will be spanked as well before too long. He says the structure of the Cypriot bailout has been determined by German politics. (Aren't all eurozone bailouts fixed in that way?) Here is the logic behind imposing a hefty levy on Cyprus deposits, according to this official: 1) Regulators and politicians are convinced that a vast amount of cash in Cypriot banks belongs to Russian money launderers. 2) Few German politicians of any persuasion would have voted for a Cyprus rescue that simultaneously rescued these launderers. 3) So the only way to get the bailout through the Bundestag is for the launderers to be taxed to the tune of almost 10% of their allegedly ill-gotten cash. And if innocent savers are hurt too, that is the way this particular "Keks" will crumble. So now do you accept not only did the Cypriot government have to contribute 6bn Euors the Germans are behind the fact it had to be done via a raid on deposits? Where in that piece does it state that the German government was behind the levy on depositors with less than 100k Euro? because I can't see it. And the German finance minister has specifically stated that he and the IMF were against the idea because of the conflict with the principle of the depositor guarantee. DaveO wrote: It would seem they are wouldn't it? Only if you don't understand the situation. DaveO wrote: It includes Germany and the German parliament would have to back the deal and the only way that was happening was with a raid on deposits. They are the ones who couldn't sell it to their electorate without a deposit raid. The CEO of the German stock exchange made the same point on Newsnight. Paxman actually asked him was he worried if Germany was seen as acting as a bully in all this. Paxman, the CEO and the Cypriot economist on the show were not under any illusions as to who was the driving force behind the need for a deposit raid and it's Germany because they want to give Russian depositors there a haircut. It includes other countries as well as Germany. Are they blameless in your eyes. Oh, wait - you think the nasty Germans are bullying everyone again. DaveO wrote: I never said they were. The point I was making was a government was being told what to do by an undemocratic body. No it isn't. It's being offered a choice. It can do what it likes. DaveO wrote: I agree. Despite assurances that "this is different" the troika have shown they will do basically what they want so why are they to be trusted? When people go on about the perils undemocratic European integration this gives them plenty of ammunition. Except that this situation is being largely driven by politics, which in turn is being driven by democratically elected politicians worried about the voting public. This situation is a mess largely because of politics and the conflicting demands of the democratic process.

DaveO wrote: And you are wrong. Read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853 Specifically: UPDATE 14:20: A well-placed official rings to tell me why investors should not be panicking that the punishment of Cypriot depositors is a precedent, or that lenders to Spanish and Italian banks will be spanked as well before too long. He says the structure of the Cypriot bailout has been determined by German politics. (Aren't all eurozone bailouts fixed in that way?) Here is the logic behind imposing a hefty levy on Cyprus deposits, according to this official: 1) Regulators and politicians are convinced that a vast amount of cash in Cypriot banks belongs to Russian money launderers. 2) Few German politicians of any persuasion would have voted for a Cyprus rescue that simultaneously rescued these launderers. 3) So the only way to get the bailout through the Bundestag is for the launderers to be taxed to the tune of almost 10% of their allegedly ill-gotten cash. And if innocent savers are hurt too, that is the way this particular "Keks" will crumble. So now do you accept not only did the Cypriot government have to contribute 6bn Euors the Germans are behind the fact it had to be done via a raid on deposits? Where in that piece does it state that the German government was behind the levy on depositors with less than 100k Euro? because I can't see it. And the German finance minister has specifically stated that he and the IMF were against the idea because of the conflict with the principle of the depositor guarantee. DaveO wrote: It would seem they are wouldn't it? Only if you don't understand the situation. DaveO wrote: It includes Germany and the German parliament would have to back the deal and the only way that was happening was with a raid on deposits. They are the ones who couldn't sell it to their electorate without a deposit raid. The CEO of the German stock exchange made the same point on Newsnight. Paxman actually asked him was he worried if Germany was seen as acting as a bully in all this. Paxman, the CEO and the Cypriot economist on the show were not under any illusions as to who was the driving force behind the need for a deposit raid and it's Germany because they want to give Russian depositors there a haircut. It includes other countries as well as Germany. Are they blameless in your eyes. Oh, wait - you think the nasty Germans are bullying everyone again. DaveO wrote: I never said they were. The point I was making was a government was being told what to do by an undemocratic body. No it isn't. It's being offered a choice. It can do what it likes. DaveO wrote: I agree. Despite assurances that "this is different" the troika have shown they will do basically what they want so why are they to be trusted? When people go on about the perils undemocratic European integration this gives them plenty of ammunition. Except that this situation is being largely driven by politics, which in turn is being driven by democratically elected politicians worried about the voting public. This situation is a mess largely because of politics and the conflicting demands of the democratic process.

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:06 pm  

Kosh wrote:

... It includes other countries as well as Germany. Are they blameless in your eyes. Oh, wait - you think the nasty Germans are bullying everyone again ...

I should point out that being anti-German is one of the few 'anti-' attitudes that remains socially acceptable, and, oddly enough, unites people on both left and right of the political spectrum (not all, I hasten to add, for the sake of clarity, but some on both sides).

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:59 pm  

Mintball wrote:

Next thing we know, Dally will reveal that, on the same basis, he understands and agrees with anti-British sentiments.

Of course I can understand foreigners' anti-British sentiments. Why would that concern me? It's natural for people to distrust other groups, tribes, nations.

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:03 pm  

El Barbudo wrote:

In assuming trolling on your part, I was being kind.

The vast majority of Germans weren't even born in the time you are talking about.
According to your logic, purely by virtue of being English, you and I are "evil" because of what "we" did at Amritsar, for "our" concentration camps in SA and because "we" burned Joan of Arc.

But hey, labelling a nation as "evil" is so much easier than actually putting some thought into the argument, isn't it?

I said millions of living people suffered as a result of German evil. That is a fact. If you have a point to make, make it.

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:34 pm  

Mintball wrote:

A new party has been formed, Alternative für Deutschland (FW).

A poll last week for Focus news magazine found 26% were supportive of an anti-euro protest. They came from across the political spectrum.

This does not mean that the new party has 25% support.

Further, the leaders of FW have stated that their aim is not to leave the Euro, but to stop bailouts.

The new party will challenge Mrs M in the election in September with the claim that the currency is dividing Europe, damaging, damaging its economy and undermining its democratic traditions. The new group nicknamed " The Professors Party" because of the large number of academics in its ranks has a platform which includes a demand for a gradual return to national currencies or the creation of a new currency for Europe's northern states. They would kill off the 17-member eurozone.

Bernd Lucke party president and professor of macroeconomics at Hamburg University said "The Euro has failed as a currency, making the southern countries less competitive and pushing the northern countries into guranteeing massive bailouts that cannot possibly help in the long run. We need to prepare a road map for dissolving the eurozone before the insurmountable internal differences cause a disorderly break-up that will wreck havoc on all our economies"

The Emnid Poll, timed to coincide with the new party launch found that more than a quarter of Germans would consider voting for an anto-euro party.

The party is at pains to stress that although it is anti-euro it is not anti-EU. Lucke also said his natural allies in Britain are the Conservatives and not UKIP. His party wants reform of Europs´s institutions along the lines advocated by David Cameron "We're fully supportive of Cameron's concept of repatriating powers from Brussels" he said.

Source Sunday Times

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:07 pm  

El Barbudo wrote:

I think you mean you would like it to be doomed.
EU politicians are busily correcting the mistakes (which IMHO include not having fiscal union at the launch of the Euro).
The markets are still buying Euro, its value against the pound and the dollar are higher now than when it was introduced. (It is down against the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen ... but how many currencies aren't?)

No I don't mean what you choose to think I mean. I stated IMO that the single currency is doomed and have consistently felt so from the start. The EU politicians have been "busily" trying to correct the mistakes for several years now, in Kanute like fashion, and they will not do it because it is has already failed with hugely damaging results. It has dragged the whole EU down and it has brought real austerity to half of the Eurozone which the public are now rejecting. Eg Italy.

El Barbudo wrote:

Are they clairvoyant?
Cameron hasn't made any real case yet and the things he has managed to mention so far are all business-as-usual topics anyway, highlighted as some sort of tough stance to show the near-sighted Europhobe tendency in his party that he's the man to give Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose.

The new party is at pains to stress that although it is anti-euro it is not anti-EU. Lucke also said his natural allies in Britain are the Conservatives and not UKIP. His party wants reform of Europs´s institutions along the lines advocated by David Cameron "We're fully supportive of Cameron's concept of repatriating powers from Brussels" he said.

Your Eurofile tendencies have blinded you to the reality the the EU needs major reform. It is not working, it has become bloated with burocrats and regulations that have made the EU uncompetitive.

El Barbudo wrote:

You seem to be saying that Greek membership was dependent upon them buying arms from Germany.
That is nonsense.
It's very easy to point at what arms they bought from companies in several other EU member states and come up with a conspiracy ... but Greece bought very expensive aeroplanes from the US, I guess that was just to put us off the scent eh?

There you go again. Please do not put words in my mouth. Germany was very keen for the membership to increase because of its exports could be financed. At the same time the leading EU countries took a very relaxed view of whether countries like Greece fullfilled the membership criteria. You can form your own conclusions.

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:19 am  

Dally wrote: If an EU member state is so overtly laundering money, does that not mean their has been a catastrophic failure in regulation by the EU? Shouldn't senior heads roll? You might enjoy this: http://www.vanityfair.com/society/2013/ ... ark-london

Dally wrote: If an EU member state is so overtly laundering money, does that not mean their has been a catastrophic failure in regulation by the EU? Shouldn't senior heads roll? You might enjoy this: http://www.vanityfair.com/society/2013/ ... ark-london

Re: Euro Crisis Revived With Yet Another EU Buggle : Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:21 am  

DaveO wrote:

It's the latter of course but the solution to the Cypriot problem is a disaster.

We use the same solution but we call it quantitive easing rather than overtly admitting to stealing money directly from people. The Cypriot mistake was to be honest and upfront about it. The markets don't like that.