Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:59 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.

Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.

Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.

What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?

As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.

Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:16 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Corbyn would be a disaster as a PM - he would do what most Labour governments do tax heavily - and McDonald has already hinted at that anyone on >70k he considers rich and they will be taxed accordingly which must include himself!! - spend on the most inefficient sector i.e. the public sector. He will bring in a maximum earning level which will result in an exodus of talent. You will see the rise of union power once again. If he thinks he can take on the corporates and beat them he really is delusional.

Welcome to the world of theoretical Socialism!! It doesn't work it never has and it never will

The only reason why 70k doesn’t go far in this country is because everything is overpriced and the corporates need to be held accountable for ripping everyone off. When it is cheaper to get a flight into mainland Europe than it is to get a train from Leeds to London then something needs to change. Taxpayers would get much better value for money if the railways were nationalised and the heavier tax will be worth it because we will all get better services again.

Parts of the private sector can be just as inefficient as some of the public sector. The private sector does not have a monopoly on efficiency. In the space of a week my complaint recently went from a senior customer service manager to a national manager and a national team manager. How many managers does this private company need to deal with complaints?

The exodus of talent is already happening with many quitting vital jobs over here to get a fairer deal abroad. Brexit has been handled disastrously under the conservatives and more jobs are set to go if they’re re-elected and follow through with a hard Brexit.

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:56 am  

Isn't Corbyn now making noises that he won't quit, even if Labour get smashed - at least long enough to change the rules again to make it harder for the Parliamentary party to dominate selections for leadership positions. If ever you wanted evidence that to Jeremy and his mates all that matters is control of the party and not winning an election, there it is.

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:52 am  

If Corbyn gets out, meets people, gets on the megaphone and uses a massive social media he can will this election. He just needs one hook to engage people. With a Trump it was controversial comments that caused the tweeting idiots faux outrage. That gave him the oxygen of publicity to invigorate a leadership campaign that was going nowhere fast.

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:39 am  

Dally wrote:

What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?

As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.



Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?

Most loans are at an agreed rate for the term of the loan at its inception - otherwise how can you plan an investment if you don't actually know the cost of the funding? Overdrafts are obviously a different matter as is an ID facility which appears to have replaced a lot of overdrafts these days.

Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?

What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.

Personal debt is too high I would agree with you but there will be a balancing of this as its part of cycle. As soon as interest rates increase even by 1/2% demand for new borrowing will decrease it is just a question of time

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:17 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.

When the bubble burst in 2008 there should have been an example made and it should have been 'day zero'. Instead the bubble was patched up and re-inflated to carry on with this ponzi scheme circus of an economy.

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:59 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?

You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:55 pm  

Dally wrote:

You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.

Have you not seen the value of the £ against the $.
1.43 last Jan to 1.24 today, a 17/18% drop ??

Although suppliers can close their eyes in the short term, these changes have a direct effect on the cost of goods that we all buy on the high street.
On the flip side, a weak currency certainly helps exports.
If only we had a strong manufacturing sector in the UK.................

Re: General Election 8th June : Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:37 pm  

I'll be voting Labour 100%

The Tories "hammer the young/poor/low paid/disabled + tax breaks for the rich" policies don't sit well with me at all.

Where as Corbyn has his faults, but he's a man of principle who is struggling to adapt to the phoney world of front bench politics. The policies are pretty good and I feel investment in the North is much better safeguarded by a Labour Government.

Re: General Election 8th June : Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:23 am  

How could you vote for anything other than 100%? Put a single line instead of a cross in the box?

When you say Corbyn is a man of principle, shouldn't that translate to accepting that his MPs can and should vote against him on the basis of conscience? That's the flag he hid behind when doing so umpteen times. I'd also argue that if he was genuinely principled, his aim should be to get his party into power. If he can't he should quit and let someone else have a go. Otherwise he's actually letting down all Labour supporters, except for the mindless few who think running the Labour party is more important than running the country.