Improved goal-line attack and defence, getting rid of silly errors yet still playing expansively, and luck/rub of the green from the ref will all be needed - plus the Aussies being overconfident.
The goal-line at both ends is key. We have to be able to pressure Australia when they have the ball, and be more effective at the other end.
I can't see past an Australia win. They are still a long way ahead in execution of plays in attack, and yet less likely to concede points through dumb errors near their own line. It would be massive for international RL if we could do it, and we have a slight chance, but I think Australia will win.
On a side topic, suggesting that the retirement of the likes of Lockyer will be a relief is rubbish. Australia produces quality new players every year, and we've been saying for years that things will be different when X or Y is gone. That's the difference - we haven't had a genuine class halfback since Goulding for example, Australia have produced probably 5 or 6 great players in that time. The same is true across the board. What's in our favour at the moment going forward is that we have some outside backs of actual quality who are also young, with more coming through. That's a huge change.