Grand Final betting tip : Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:01 pm
Guys,I've been looking at having a punt on the Grand Final but the odds on winning the final are pretty abysmal - you can't generally get anything more than 4/1 on any of the top four clubs.
You can get 1/3 of the odds if you bet each way, which still isn't a lot of value on the top four.
But Hull FC are currently 50/1 to win and just over 16/1 to just make the final.
Let us now look at the table:
5th - St Helens 29 points (+118)
6th - Hull FC 28 points (+115)
7th - Catalans 28 points (+17)
8th - Hull KR 26 points (-106)
I would suggest that Hull FC will finish 5th, if they beat St Helens at home in their last league game, and I believe they will - they have an amazing home record over the past two years - it is something like 9 wins this year and about 11 wins last year, though I'd need to check last year.
If you look at Hull FC they have played their best football against the top teams and are unbeaten away at all three of Warrington, Wigan and St Helens, whilst they have beaten every team except Huddersfield, and they are pretty much always within 10 points at the final hooter.
They have had a tendency to play to less than their maximum against the weaker sides away with narrow losses v Castleford, Wakefield and Bradford plus a draw at London. Averaging just three more points per game would have seen them win the four.
If I was to review the opponents...
WIGAN have struggled since 28th June when they lost at home to Castleford and then stole a win on the hooter v Bradford. They have since then been well beaten at home to the Giants, away at Catalans and lost at St Helens. They have only looked very convincing when the opposition has constantly gifted possession and Hull, Widnes and London all self-destructed. They need Sam Tomkins, Sean O'Loughlin and Pat Richards, who has barely scored since May, to be firing on all cylinders to win. But O'Loughlin will miss the key play off games and Richards looks like he has now fallen from glory. Everything hinges on Tomkins linking with Charnley if they are to win. They have rested players but I do not think they have enough in their locker this year and do not think they will make the final.
WARRINGTON are defensively weaker than last year. They have lost twice to Widnes and conceded almost 50 points in their games against Wakefield and over 50 points in two games against Castleford. Their strategy is to blow away teams in the first twenty minutes... but then their scoring rate massively drops, so if you can defend correctly you will be in the game for pretty much the duration. They have a strong squad and they have consistently beaten the Giants year after year and I think they'll take out Wigan, but I don't think they will beat Leeds strongest side, so I don't think they will make the final. The pack is very old and Smith has had to rest them a lot of times this year due to injury and fatigue.
LEEDS have proven to be the best team just for one month only at the end of the season. They have struggled to constantly achieve 24 points per game and ground out wins in a lot of close games and have been better than last year and been relatively convincing against the weaker teams, when in previous years some games would be dropped. I think they can beat both Wigan and Warrington but I do not think they will beat Huddersfield away as the Giants have a stronger team physically and can dominate them.
GIANTS look to be the real deal this year and it will be a big surprise if they do not make the final. I think they have the beating of Wigan and Leeds plus the elimination play offs teams, but they will need to avoid Warrington to be in the final. To me they have the good blend of size, power and speed and a lot of players who are around their peak, versus Warrington and Leeds who might be a little past their best.
Of the outsiders, St Helens have been in good form in recent weeks but I wouldn't touch them with the squad they have now and without James Roby whilst Catalans have been a big disappointment and for them to do anything they need the overseas roster to be good signings and available, this year that isn't the case. Hull KR are capable of causing a shock but I think it is implausible to win four away games in a row in four weeks when you have a 50/50 record throughout the year, or sometimes less from eighth. KR seem to fade in the last 20 minutes of games also
I'm on Hull FC with £30 each way, which will pay out just over £2k for the dream result.
The plan is to anticipate two wins, then to lay off if we get to the semis, so I'll explain that if we get the wins we need.
Cheers
Rammo