Grand Final betting tip : Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:01 pm  

Guys,

I've been looking at having a punt on the Grand Final but the odds on winning the final are pretty abysmal - you can't generally get anything more than 4/1 on any of the top four clubs.

You can get 1/3 of the odds if you bet each way, which still isn't a lot of value on the top four.

But Hull FC are currently 50/1 to win and just over 16/1 to just make the final.

Let us now look at the table:

5th - St Helens 29 points (+118)
6th - Hull FC 28 points (+115)
7th - Catalans 28 points (+17)
8th - Hull KR 26 points (-106)

I would suggest that Hull FC will finish 5th, if they beat St Helens at home in their last league game, and I believe they will - they have an amazing home record over the past two years - it is something like 9 wins this year and about 11 wins last year, though I'd need to check last year.

If you look at Hull FC they have played their best football against the top teams and are unbeaten away at all three of Warrington, Wigan and St Helens, whilst they have beaten every team except Huddersfield, and they are pretty much always within 10 points at the final hooter.

They have had a tendency to play to less than their maximum against the weaker sides away with narrow losses v Castleford, Wakefield and Bradford plus a draw at London. Averaging just three more points per game would have seen them win the four.

If I was to review the opponents...

WIGAN have struggled since 28th June when they lost at home to Castleford and then stole a win on the hooter v Bradford. They have since then been well beaten at home to the Giants, away at Catalans and lost at St Helens. They have only looked very convincing when the opposition has constantly gifted possession and Hull, Widnes and London all self-destructed. They need Sam Tomkins, Sean O'Loughlin and Pat Richards, who has barely scored since May, to be firing on all cylinders to win. But O'Loughlin will miss the key play off games and Richards looks like he has now fallen from glory. Everything hinges on Tomkins linking with Charnley if they are to win. They have rested players but I do not think they have enough in their locker this year and do not think they will make the final.

WARRINGTON are defensively weaker than last year. They have lost twice to Widnes and conceded almost 50 points in their games against Wakefield and over 50 points in two games against Castleford. Their strategy is to blow away teams in the first twenty minutes... but then their scoring rate massively drops, so if you can defend correctly you will be in the game for pretty much the duration. They have a strong squad and they have consistently beaten the Giants year after year and I think they'll take out Wigan, but I don't think they will beat Leeds strongest side, so I don't think they will make the final. The pack is very old and Smith has had to rest them a lot of times this year due to injury and fatigue.

LEEDS have proven to be the best team just for one month only at the end of the season. They have struggled to constantly achieve 24 points per game and ground out wins in a lot of close games and have been better than last year and been relatively convincing against the weaker teams, when in previous years some games would be dropped. I think they can beat both Wigan and Warrington but I do not think they will beat Huddersfield away as the Giants have a stronger team physically and can dominate them.

GIANTS look to be the real deal this year and it will be a big surprise if they do not make the final. I think they have the beating of Wigan and Leeds plus the elimination play offs teams, but they will need to avoid Warrington to be in the final. To me they have the good blend of size, power and speed and a lot of players who are around their peak, versus Warrington and Leeds who might be a little past their best.

Of the outsiders, St Helens have been in good form in recent weeks but I wouldn't touch them with the squad they have now and without James Roby whilst Catalans have been a big disappointment and for them to do anything they need the overseas roster to be good signings and available, this year that isn't the case. Hull KR are capable of causing a shock but I think it is implausible to win four away games in a row in four weeks when you have a 50/50 record throughout the year, or sometimes less from eighth. KR seem to fade in the last 20 minutes of games also

I'm on Hull FC with £30 each way, which will pay out just over £2k for the dream result.

The plan is to anticipate two wins, then to lay off if we get to the semis, so I'll explain that if we get the wins we need.

Cheers
Rammo

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:52 pm  

Did you watch the CC Final? Good luck with that, will be both astounded and very pleased for you if that one comes off!

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:49 pm  

I think the Hull FC outside backs are as good as any in the competition.

Briscoe, Lineham, Yeaman and Crooks are all of an international standard whilst the replacements like Crookes, Arundel and Whiting are all useful.

They can blow hot and cold at halfback, I haven't been impressed by Miller but Holdsworth is usually decent and the fullback looks ok, nothing special but decent.

I also think they have three of the best forwards in the competition with Ellis, Houghton and Lynch plus some pretty handy players around them like Westerman, O'Meley and Tickle.

They also have a lower age profile than the top four clubs - I can't see the large number of mid 30s forwards backing up at Warrington and Leeds week after week this time out.

The Giants I think will make the final although there is doubt as to their big game temperament.

Wigan look a bit light in the forwards and not in top form at the business end of the season.

Hull have impressed me defensively with a series of heroic performances against Warrington, Catalans and Wigan in particularly standing out and they are hardly ever beaten by a big score.

If they beat Saint Helens they will have a very good chance from fifth; they are not favourites but a 50/1 or 16/1 ticket in your hand will be well worth having.

There is no clear favourite and Saints are only about 12/1 - I rate Hull better than them. Thus I believe there is value.

I am only punting some of the winnings from Hudds to win the league which I tipped a few weeks back.

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:14 am  

Mr Rammond

I was impressed with your explanation when you predicted Huddersfield to win the LLS back in July and picked up a big win so many thanks for that.

I am similarly impressed with your view here and will invest a few quid on Hull FC out of the Giants winnings. Definitely worth a small interest at that price!

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:58 am  

It is good value, they are capable of getting to the final. But their halves are invariably complete pants.

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:10 pm  

They were so transparently awful at the Challenge Cup Final that I find it very hard to believe they'd get to Old Trafford at all, never mind win the thing.

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:31 pm  

Teams who can defend properly have a base to go forwards.

Wigan scored only one try in the first 78 minutes and 30 seconds in the final and the last try was directly correlated to desperate plays, kicking early etc.

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:22 pm  

Briscoe, Lineham, Yeaman and Crooks are all of an international standard

All credibility went here.

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:23 pm  

Their record in SL against the big 4 this year isn't too bad (playing Saints this weekend)

Lost 5
Drawn 1
Won 3

Re: Grand Final betting tip : Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:28 pm  

wire quin wrote:

All credibility went here.

Kirk Yeaman has been playing for Great Britain and England since 2006.

Tom Briscoe has been playing for England since 2009.

Ben Crooks is by far the highest regular English tryscoring centre with 19 tries and he looks to be as good as anyone who regularly features and is comparable to the likes of Ryan Atkins. However Crooks has greater potential than Atkins. With an absence of quality English centres he is sure to have a long international career.

Tom Lineham is the only one who could be disputed although he has scored 14 tries and played very well, there are other options. He wouldn't get past Hall and Charnley but he could certainly take the fourth spot from Ben Cockayne. With his size and physique he could certainly be an equivalent to the powerful wings that NZ and Australia tend to field.